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HPA

High Probability Advisors Portfolio holdings

AUM $935M
1-Year Est. Return 18.66%
This Fund
S&P 500
This Quarter Est. Return
+1.18%
1 Year Est. Return
+18.66%
3 Year Est. Return
+49.74%
5 Year Est. Return
+44.11%
10 Year Est. Return
–
AUM
$750M
AUM Growth
+$20.6M
Cap. Flow
+$12.3M
Cap. Flow %
1.64%
Top 10 Hldgs %
65.83%
Holding
75
New
10
Increased
30
Reduced
11
Closed
2

Top Buys

1
VGLT icon
Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF
VGLT
+$2.19M
2
IVV icon
iShares Core S&P 500 ETF
IVV
+$1.56M
3
USMV icon
iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF
USMV
+$1.5M
4
DUHP icon
Dimensional US High Profitability ETF
DUHP
+$1.43M
5
SPIB icon
State Street SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Corporate Bond ETF
SPIB
+$1.16M

Top Sells

1
NYF icon
iShares New York Muni Bond ETF
NYF
+$4.01M
2
SPTL icon
State Street SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF
SPTL
+$1.95M
3
TSLA icon
Tesla
TSLA
+$377K
4
NVDA icon
NVIDIA
NVDA
+$272K
5
IVLU icon
iShares MSCI Intl Value Factor ETF
IVLU
+$108K

Sector Composition

1 Technology 0.32%
2 Real Estate 0.29%
3 Financials 0.17%
4 Industrials 0.14%
5 Communication Services 0.08%
Name Market Value Portfolio Weight Shares or Principal Change
in Stake 		Capital Flow
GSLC icon
1
Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta US Large Cap Equity ETF
GSLC
$15.4B
$107M 14.31%
810,913
-49
-0% -$6.43K
MTUM icon
2
iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF
MTUM
$25.8B
$80.5M 10.74%
321,764
+3,326
+1% +$835K
DUHP icon
3
Dimensional US High Profitability ETF
DUHP
$12.2B
$57.9M 7.72%
1,521,655
+37,641
+3% +$1.43M
GSIE icon
4
Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta International Equity ETF
GSIE
$5.87B
$41.7M 5.56%
970,100
+13,439
+1% +$561K
DIHP icon
5
Dimensional International High Profitability ETF
DIHP
$6.16B
$38M 5.06%
1,199,030
+19,697
+2% +$611K
USMV icon
6
iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF
USMV
$23.1B
$36M 4.8%
382,490
+15,945
+4% +$1.5M
SCHO icon
7
Schwab Short-Term US Treasury ETF
SCHO
$12.7B
$35.8M 4.77%
1,469,142
+45,616
+3% +$1.11M
NYF icon
8
iShares New York Muni Bond ETF
NYF
$1.37B
$33.7M 4.49%
629,846
-74,779
-11% -$4.01M
AVUV icon
9
Avantis US Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV
$29.4B
$31.7M 4.22%
310,636
+6,067
+2% +$607K
FVAL icon
10
Fidelity Value Factor ETF
FVAL
$1.28B
$31.1M 4.14%
429,924
+2,312
+0.5% +$163K
SCHR
11
Schwab Intermediately-Term US Treasury ETF
SCHR
$13.3B
$30.1M 4.01%
1,198,687
+6,915
+0.6% +$174K
DYNF icon
12
BlackRock US Equity Factor Rotation ETF
DYNF
$37.8B
$26.6M 3.55%
438,248
+10,203
+2% +$614K
SPIB icon
13
State Street SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Corporate Bond ETF
SPIB
$11.5B
$26.4M 3.53%
782,050
+34,330
+5% +$1.16M
FQAL icon
14
Fidelity Quality Factor ETF
FQAL
$1.42B
$23.4M 3.12%
309,369
+6,021
+2% +$452K
AVEM icon
15
Avantis Emerging Markets Equity ETF
AVEM
$24.6B
$22.5M 3%
291,839
-1,137
-0.4% -$87K
SHYG icon
16
iShares 0-5 Year High Yield Corporate Bond ETF
SHYG
$7.61B
$20.3M 2.71%
474,358
+21,006
+5% +$901K
IUSV icon
17
iShares Core S&P US Value ETF
IUSV
$27.1B
$17.6M 2.35%
171,585
+4,956
+3% +$503K
IVLU icon
18
iShares MSCI Intl Value Factor ETF
IVLU
$4.28B
$14M 1.87%
368,371
-2,949
-0.8% -$108K
FNDC icon
19
Schwab Fundamental International Small Company Index ETF
FNDC
$3B
$12.8M 1.71%
287,982
+4,569
+2% +$203K
GSSC icon
20
GS ActiveBeta US Small Cap Equity ETF
GSSC
$1.05B
$11.8M 1.58%
156,620
+3,294
+2% +$247K
SPTL icon
21
State Street SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF
SPTL
$10.5B
$7.63M 1.02%
288,285
-72,205
-20% -$1.95M
SPYM
22
State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF
SPYM
$157B
$4.31M 0.58%
53,760
+5,472
+11% +$435K
VTEB icon
23
Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond Index Fund
VTEB
$45.6B
$3.91M 0.52%
77,693
-502
-0.6% -$25.3K
IVV icon
24
iShares Core S&P 500 ETF
IVV
$881B
$2.31M 0.31%
3,370
+2,302
+216% +$1.56M
VGLT icon
25
Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF
VGLT
$10.3B
$2.14M 0.29%
+38,415
New +$2.19M
1
2 3

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High Probability Advisors's Q4 2025 Portfolio in Review

As of Q4 2025, High Probability Advisors held 75 positions worth $750M, up 2.8% from $729M the previous quarter. Its ten largest holdings account for 66% of the portfolio.

High Probability Advisors's Q4 2025 filing shows 10 new, 30 increased, 11 reduced and 2 closed positions. Its largest new stake was Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF: 38,415 shares worth $2.14M. The largest sale was iShares New York Muni Bond ETF, an estimated $4.01M.

By sector, the portfolio is most concentrated in Technology at 0.32% of assets, down from 0.34% a quarter earlier, followed by Real Estate and Financials.

  • High Probability Advisors's largest Q4 2025 buy was Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF: 38,415 shares worth $2.14M.
  • High Probability Advisors added most to iShares Core S&P 500 ETF in Q4 2025, an estimated $1.56M increase.
  • High Probability Advisors's biggest Q4 2025 reduction was iShares New York Muni Bond ETF, cutting an estimated $4.01M.
  • High Probability Advisors fully exited Tesla in Q4 2025, selling an estimated $377K.
  • High Probability Advisors's ten largest holdings make up 66% of its $750M portfolio in Q4 2025.
  • High Probability Advisors opened 10 new positions and closed 2 in Q4 2025.
  • High Probability Advisors's portfolio value rose 2.8% quarter-over-quarter to $750M.

Based on High Probability Advisors's 13F filing for Q4 2025, filed 29 Jan 2026.