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HPA

High Probability Advisors Portfolio holdings

AUM $935M
1-Year Est. Return 18.66%
This Fund
S&P 500
This Quarter Est. Return
-1.83%
1 Year Est. Return
+18.66%
3 Year Est. Return
+49.74%
5 Year Est. Return
+44.11%
10 Year Est. Return
–
AUM
$558M
AUM Growth
-$29.5M
Cap. Flow
-$17.2M
Cap. Flow %
-3.07%
Top 10 Hldgs %
67.52%
Holding
57
New
–
Increased
23
Reduced
17
Closed
2

Top Buys

Rank Stock Value
1
DUHP icon
Dimensional US High Profitability ETF
DUHP
+$2.24M
2
MTUM icon
iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF
MTUM
+$2.03M
3
DYNF icon
BlackRock US Equity Factor Rotation ETF
DYNF
+$1.52M
4
SPIB icon
State Street SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Corporate Bond ETF
SPIB
+$1.31M
5
SPTL icon
State Street SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF
SPTL
+$856K

Top Sells

Rank Stock Value
1
IEI icon
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF
IEI
+$9.99M
2
SCHR
Schwab Intermediately-Term US Treasury ETF
SCHR
+$6.12M
3
NYF icon
iShares New York Muni Bond ETF
NYF
+$5.71M
4
VTEB icon
Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond Index Fund
VTEB
+$1.67M
5
GVI icon
iShares Intermediate Government/Credit Bond ETF
GVI
+$1.57M

Sector Composition

Rank Sector Weight
1 Real Estate 0.51%
2 Technology 0.34%
3 Industrials 0.16%
4 Consumer Discretionary 0.05%
5 Financials 0.05%
Name Market Value Portfolio Weight Shares or Principal Change
in Stake 		Capital Flow
GSLC icon
1
Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta US Large Cap Equity ETF
GSLC
$15B
$84.4M 15.12%
732,358
-2,905
-0.4% -$338K
MTUM icon
2
iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF
MTUM
$24.9B
$59.4M 10.65%
287,162
+9,675
+3% +$2.03M
DUHP icon
3
Dimensional US High Profitability ETF
DUHP
$12.3B
$42.5M 7.62%
1,257,178
+64,809
+5% +$2.24M
GSIE icon
4
Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta International Equity ETF
GSIE
$6.04B
$34.4M 6.17%
1,032,054
+10,217
+1% +$353K
DIHP icon
5
Dimensional International High Profitability ETF
DIHP
$6.37B
$32.3M 5.79%
1,280,120
-9,308
-0.7% -$245K
USMV icon
6
iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF
USMV
$23.5B
$30.2M 5.42%
340,380
+4,920
+1% +$451K
SCHO icon
7
Schwab Short-Term US Treasury ETF
SCHO
$12.8B
$26.5M 4.76%
1,102,327
-41,265
-4% -$999K
NYF icon
8
iShares New York Muni Bond ETF
NYF
$1.38B
$22.8M 4.08%
427,868
-106,368
-20% -$5.71M
FVAL icon
9
Fidelity Value Factor ETF
FVAL
$1.3B
$22.4M 4.01%
363,818
+7,859
+2% +$490K
AVUV icon
10
Avantis US Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV
$30.3B
$21.8M 3.9%
225,368
+7,827
+4% +$778K
SPIB icon
11
State Street SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Corporate Bond ETF
SPIB
$11.5B
$20.4M 3.65%
621,877
+39,609
+7% +$1.31M
DYNF icon
12
BlackRock US Equity Factor Rotation ETF
DYNF
$38.1B
$19.2M 3.45%
375,438
+29,521
+9% +$1.52M
AVEM icon
13
Avantis Emerging Markets Equity ETF
AVEM
$25.4B
$18.9M 3.39%
321,938
-2,298
-0.7% -$143K
FQAL icon
14
Fidelity Quality Factor ETF
FQAL
$1.41B
$17.9M 3.21%
273,237
+4,563
+2% +$303K
SHYG icon
15
iShares 0-5 Year High Yield Corporate Bond ETF
SHYG
$7.61B
$15.7M 2.82%
368,833
+13,167
+4% +$566K
IUSV icon
16
iShares Core S&P US Value ETF
IUSV
$27.2B
$13.1M 2.35%
141,389
+2,146
+2% +$206K
IVLU icon
17
iShares MSCI Intl Value Factor ETF
IVLU
$4.44B
$11.8M 2.11%
433,961
-6,639
-2% -$187K
FNDC icon
18
Schwab Fundamental International Small Company Index ETF
FNDC
$3.07B
$10.8M 1.94%
317,105
-1,307
-0.4% -$46.9K
SCHR
19
Schwab Intermediately-Term US Treasury ETF
SCHR
$13.3B
$9.28M 1.66%
382,232
-248,668
-39% -$6.12M
GSSC icon
20
GS ActiveBeta US Small Cap Equity ETF
GSSC
$1.05B
$8.57M 1.54%
123,945
+2,842
+2% +$203K
SPTL icon
21
State Street SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF
SPTL
$10.5B
$7.47M 1.34%
285,281
+31,239
+12% +$856K
SPYM
22
State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF
SPYM
$160B
$3.36M 0.6%
48,733
+5,262
+12% +$365K
VTEB icon
23
Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond Index Fund
VTEB
$45.2B
$2.07M 0.37%
41,245
-33,018
-44% -$1.67M
IWV icon
24
iShares Russell 3000 ETF
IWV
$19.5B
$1.73M 0.31%
5,180
– –
SPY icon
25
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
SPY
$784B
$1.66M 0.3%
2,826
-25
-0.9% -$14.7K
1
2 3

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High Probability Advisors's Q4 2024 Portfolio in Review

As of Q4 2024, High Probability Advisors held 57 positions worth $558M, down 5% from $587M the previous quarter. Its ten largest holdings account for 68% of the portfolio.

High Probability Advisors withdrew a net $17.2M in Q4 2024, closing 2 positions and reducing 17 holdings. Its most notable exit was Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF, an estimated $431K position sold in full.

By sector, the portfolio is most concentrated in Real Estate at 0.51% of assets, down from 0.76% a quarter earlier, followed by Technology and Industrials.

Against the trend, High Probability Advisors added an estimated $2.24M to Dimensional US High Profitability ETF.

  • High Probability Advisors added most to Dimensional US High Profitability ETF in Q4 2024, an estimated $2.24M increase.
  • High Probability Advisors's biggest Q4 2024 reduction was iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF, cutting an estimated $9.99M.
  • High Probability Advisors fully exited Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF in Q4 2024, selling an estimated $431K.
  • High Probability Advisors's ten largest holdings make up 68% of its $558M portfolio in Q4 2024.
  • High Probability Advisors opened 0 new positions and closed 2 in Q4 2024.
  • High Probability Advisors's portfolio value fell 5% quarter-over-quarter to $558M.

Based on High Probability Advisors's 13F filing for Q4 2024, filed 17 Jan 2025.