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HPA

High Probability Advisors Portfolio holdings

AUM $935M
1-Year Est. Return 18.66%
This Fund
S&P 500
This Quarter Est. Return
+1.18%
1 Year Est. Return
+18.66%
3 Year Est. Return
+49.74%
5 Year Est. Return
+44.11%
10 Year Est. Return
–
AUM
$750M
AUM Growth
+$20.6M
Cap. Flow
+$12.3M
Cap. Flow %
1.64%
Top 10 Hldgs %
65.83%
Holding
75
New
10
Increased
30
Reduced
11
Closed
2

Top Buys

Rank Stock Value
1
VGLT icon
Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF
VGLT
+$2.19M
2
IVV icon
iShares Core S&P 500 ETF
IVV
+$1.56M
3
USMV icon
iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF
USMV
+$1.5M
4
DUHP icon
Dimensional US High Profitability ETF
DUHP
+$1.43M
5
SPIB icon
State Street SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Corporate Bond ETF
SPIB
+$1.16M

Top Sells

Rank Stock Value
1
NYF icon
iShares New York Muni Bond ETF
NYF
+$4.01M
2
SPTL icon
State Street SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF
SPTL
+$1.95M
3
TSLA icon
Tesla
TSLA
+$377K
4
NVDA icon
NVIDIA
NVDA
+$272K
5
IVLU icon
iShares MSCI Intl Value Factor ETF
IVLU
+$108K

Sector Composition

Rank Sector Weight
1 Technology 0.32%
2 Real Estate 0.29%
3 Financials 0.17%
4 Industrials 0.14%
5 Communication Services 0.08%
Name Market Value Portfolio Weight Shares or Principal Change
in Stake 		Capital Flow
IJH icon
51
iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap ETF
IJH
$122B
$440K 0.06%
+6,671
New +$437K
ETN icon
52
Eaton
ETN
$155B
$390K 0.05%
1,226
– –
HIG icon
53
Hartford Financial Services
HIG
$38.4B
$379K 0.05%
2,750
– –
SUSA icon
54
iShares ESG Optimized MSCI USA ETF
SUSA
$4.01B
$359K 0.05%
2,574
+6
+0.2% +$828
MAA icon
55
Mid-America Apartment Communities
MAA
$15.5B
$322K 0.04%
2,318
– –
SPSM icon
56
State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 600 Small Cap ETF
SPSM
$16.9B
$312K 0.04%
6,664
+689
+12% +$32.1K
HD icon
57
Home Depot
HD
$338B
$311K 0.04%
905
– –
DFUV icon
58
Dimensional US Marketwide Value ETF
DFUV
$15.2B
$310K 0.04%
6,646
– –
BND icon
59
Vanguard Total Bond Market
BND
$159B
$309K 0.04%
+4,172
New +$311K
IRT icon
60
Independence Realty Trust
IRT
$3.92B
$291K 0.04%
16,645
– –
IDEV icon
61
iShares Core MSCI International Developed Markets ETF
IDEV
$30.7B
$267K 0.04%
+3,240
New +$263K
V icon
62
Visa
V
$682B
$255K 0.03%
727
– –
SCHA icon
63
Schwab U.S Small- Cap ETF
SCHA
$22.7B
$252K 0.03%
8,840
– –
NIO icon
64
NIO
NIO
$12.2B
$241K 0.03%
+47,300
New +$292K
JPM icon
65
JPMorgan Chase
JPM
$907B
$239K 0.03%
743
– –
SPGI icon
66
S&P Global
SPGI
$133B
$219K 0.03%
419
– –
DFUS
67
Dimensional US Equity ETF
DFUS
$20.8B
$214K 0.03%
2,891
– –
SUB icon
68
iShares Short-Term National Muni Bond ETF
SUB
$11.4B
$210K 0.03%
1,971
+21
+1% +$2.24K
VXUS icon
69
Vanguard Total International Stock ETF
VXUS
$153B
$204K 0.03%
+2,698
New +$201K
ABBV icon
70
AbbVie
ABBV
$450B
$203K 0.03%
+887
New +$202K
BRK.B icon
71
Berkshire Hathaway Class B
BRK.B
$1.06T
$202K 0.03%
402
-25
-6% -$12.4K
TSM icon
72
TSMC
TSM
$2.07T
$202K 0.03%
+664
New +$195K
KODK icon
73
Kodak
KODK
$750M
$94.4K 0.01%
+11,160
New +$83.4K
NVDA icon
74
NVIDIA
NVDA
$4.91T
– –
-1,460
Closed -$272K
TSLA icon
75
Tesla
TSLA
$1.43T
– –
-847
Closed -$377K
1 2
3

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High Probability Advisors's Q4 2025 Portfolio in Review

As of Q4 2025, High Probability Advisors held 75 positions worth $750M, up 2.8% from $729M the previous quarter. Its ten largest holdings account for 66% of the portfolio.

High Probability Advisors's Q4 2025 filing shows 10 new, 30 increased, 11 reduced and 2 closed positions. Its largest new stake was Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF: 38,415 shares worth $2.14M. The largest sale was iShares New York Muni Bond ETF, an estimated $4.01M.

By sector, the portfolio is most concentrated in Technology at 0.32% of assets, down from 0.34% a quarter earlier, followed by Real Estate and Financials.

  • High Probability Advisors's largest Q4 2025 buy was Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF: 38,415 shares worth $2.14M.
  • High Probability Advisors added most to iShares Core S&P 500 ETF in Q4 2025, an estimated $1.56M increase.
  • High Probability Advisors's biggest Q4 2025 reduction was iShares New York Muni Bond ETF, cutting an estimated $4.01M.
  • High Probability Advisors fully exited Tesla in Q4 2025, selling an estimated $377K.
  • High Probability Advisors's ten largest holdings make up 66% of its $750M portfolio in Q4 2025.
  • High Probability Advisors opened 10 new positions and closed 2 in Q4 2025.
  • High Probability Advisors's portfolio value rose 2.8% quarter-over-quarter to $750M.

Based on High Probability Advisors's 13F filing for Q4 2025, filed 29 Jan 2026.