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HPA

High Probability Advisors Portfolio holdings

AUM $935M
1-Year Est. Return 18.66%
This Fund
S&P 500
This Quarter Est. Return
+1.18%
1 Year Est. Return
+18.66%
3 Year Est. Return
+49.74%
5 Year Est. Return
+44.11%
10 Year Est. Return
–
AUM
$750M
AUM Growth
+$20.6M
Cap. Flow
+$12.3M
Cap. Flow %
1.64%
Top 10 Hldgs %
65.83%
Holding
75
New
10
Increased
30
Reduced
11
Closed
2

Top Buys

Rank Stock Value
1
VGLT icon
Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF
VGLT
+$2.19M
2
IVV icon
iShares Core S&P 500 ETF
IVV
+$1.56M
3
USMV icon
iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF
USMV
+$1.5M
4
DUHP icon
Dimensional US High Profitability ETF
DUHP
+$1.43M
5
SPIB icon
State Street SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Corporate Bond ETF
SPIB
+$1.16M

Top Sells

Rank Stock Value
1
NYF icon
iShares New York Muni Bond ETF
NYF
+$4.01M
2
SPTL icon
State Street SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF
SPTL
+$1.95M
3
TSLA icon
Tesla
TSLA
+$377K
4
NVDA icon
NVIDIA
NVDA
+$272K
5
IVLU icon
iShares MSCI Intl Value Factor ETF
IVLU
+$108K

Sector Composition

Rank Sector Weight
1 Technology 0.32%
2 Real Estate 0.29%
3 Financials 0.17%
4 Industrials 0.14%
5 Communication Services 0.08%
Name Market Value Portfolio Weight Shares or Principal Change
in Stake 		Capital Flow
IWV icon
26
iShares Russell 3000 ETF
IWV
$19.6B
$2M 0.27%
5,180
– –
REZ icon
27
iShares Residential and Multisector Real Estate ETF
REZ
$905M
$1.91M 0.25%
23,069
+64
+0.3% +$5.37K
SPY icon
28
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
SPY
$774B
$1.82M 0.24%
2,674
-49
-2% -$33.1K
IXUS icon
29
iShares Core MSCI Total International Stock ETF
IXUS
$57.4B
$1.67M 0.22%
19,752
+2,095
+12% +$176K
IWD icon
30
iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF
IWD
$81.9B
$1.38M 0.18%
6,564
– –
AAPL icon
31
Apple
AAPL
$4.89T
$1.31M 0.18%
4,832
-154
-3% -$41.3K
DFAC icon
32
Dimensional US Core Equity 2 ETF
DFAC
$47.4B
$1.22M 0.16%
30,828
– –
ACWX icon
33
iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF
ACWX
$11.3B
$1.07M 0.14%
15,908
– –
VGIT icon
34
Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF
VGIT
$41.9B
$1.01M 0.14%
+16,890
New +$1.02M
SCHB icon
35
Schwab US Broad Market ETF
SCHB
$43B
$1.01M 0.13%
38,477
+1,151
+3% +$30K
SPMD icon
36
State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 400 Mid Cap ETF
SPMD
$18.1B
$994K 0.13%
17,172
+1,829
+12% +$105K
BNL icon
37
Broadstone Net Lease
BNL
$4.37B
$948K 0.13%
54,604
-3,145
-5% -$56.6K
MSFT icon
38
Microsoft
MSFT
$2.98T
$909K 0.12%
1,879
+41
+2% +$20.5K
IWM icon
39
iShares Russell 2000 ETF
IWM
$82.2B
$806K 0.11%
3,275
– –
IJR icon
40
iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF
IJR
$110B
$689K 0.09%
5,731
+2,177
+61% +$260K
GOOGL icon
41
Alphabet (Google) Class A
GOOGL
$4.33T
$609K 0.08%
1,945
+50
+3% +$14.3K
AVB icon
42
AvalonBay Communities
AVB
$27.8B
$602K 0.08%
3,318
– –
VEA icon
43
Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF
VEA
$226B
$580K 0.08%
9,286
+5,475
+144% +$335K
OEF icon
44
iShares S&P 100 ETF
OEF
$20.1B
$552K 0.07%
1,610
-6
-0.4% -$2.04K
TT icon
45
Trane Technologies
TT
$105B
$529K 0.07%
1,360
– –
DFAT icon
46
Dimensional US Targeted Value ETF
DFAT
$14.5B
$516K 0.07%
8,672
– –
GVI icon
47
iShares Intermediate Government/Credit Bond ETF
GVI
$3.74B
$515K 0.07%
4,797
– –
GBIL icon
48
Goldman Sachs Access Treasury 0-1 Year ETF
GBIL
$7.68B
$484K 0.06%
4,842
+47
+1% +$4.7K
IEI icon
49
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF
IEI
$18.2B
$463K 0.06%
3,878
– –
ACWI icon
50
iShares MSCI ACWI ETF
ACWI
$32.8B
$460K 0.06%
3,253
– –
1
2
3

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High Probability Advisors's Q4 2025 Portfolio in Review

As of Q4 2025, High Probability Advisors held 75 positions worth $750M, up 2.8% from $729M the previous quarter. Its ten largest holdings account for 66% of the portfolio.

High Probability Advisors's Q4 2025 filing shows 10 new, 30 increased, 11 reduced and 2 closed positions. Its largest new stake was Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF: 38,415 shares worth $2.14M. The largest sale was iShares New York Muni Bond ETF, an estimated $4.01M.

By sector, the portfolio is most concentrated in Technology at 0.32% of assets, down from 0.34% a quarter earlier, followed by Real Estate and Financials.

  • High Probability Advisors's largest Q4 2025 buy was Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF: 38,415 shares worth $2.14M.
  • High Probability Advisors added most to iShares Core S&P 500 ETF in Q4 2025, an estimated $1.56M increase.
  • High Probability Advisors's biggest Q4 2025 reduction was iShares New York Muni Bond ETF, cutting an estimated $4.01M.
  • High Probability Advisors fully exited Tesla in Q4 2025, selling an estimated $377K.
  • High Probability Advisors's ten largest holdings make up 66% of its $750M portfolio in Q4 2025.
  • High Probability Advisors opened 10 new positions and closed 2 in Q4 2025.
  • High Probability Advisors's portfolio value rose 2.8% quarter-over-quarter to $750M.

Based on High Probability Advisors's 13F filing for Q4 2025, filed 29 Jan 2026.