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BCM
Bayesian Capital Management Portfolio holdings
AUM
$81.9M
1-Year Est. Return
26.59%
This Fund
S&P 500
This Quarter
Est. Return
+8.82%
1 Year Est. Return
+26.59%
3 Year Est. Return
+112.98%
5 Year Est. Return
+129.77%
10 Year Est. Return
+1,146.62%
AUM
$490M
AUM Growth
-$143M
(-23%)
Cap. Flow
-$164M
Cap. Flow
% of AUM
-33.56%
Top 10 Holdings %
Top 10 Hldgs %
10.5%
Holding
855
New
346
Increased
61
Reduced
95
Closed
352
Top Buys
| Rank | Stock | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Microsoft
MSFT
|
+$6.22M |
| 2 |
Meta Platforms (Facebook)
META
|
+$6.1M |
| 3 |
Boston Scientific
BSX
|
+$5.72M |
| 4 |
Accenture
ACN
|
+$5.66M |
| 5 |
Expedia Group
EXPE
|
+$4.52M |
Top Sells
| Rank | Stock | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Nike
NKE
|
+$14.8M |
| 2 |
Oracle
ORCL
|
+$10.3M |
| 3 |
Walt Disney
DIS
|
+$9.89M |
| 4 |
Apple
AAPL
|
+$9.74M |
| 5 |
Wells Fargo
WFC
|
+$8.86M |
Sector Composition
| Rank | Sector | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Technology | 26.64% |
| 2 | Consumer Discretionary | 16.12% |
| 3 | Healthcare | 15.86% |
| 4 | Industrials | 12.65% |
| 5 | Financials | 6.86% |
| Name | Market Value | Portfolio Weight | Shares or Principal |
Change in Stake | Capital Flow | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
151
Mercury Systems
MRCY
$6.23B
| $1.06M | 0.22% |
+13,654
| New | +$849K |
|
152
ANI Pharmaceuticals
ANIP
$1.78B
| $1.05M | 0.22% |
+11,500
| New | +$938K |
|
153
Diamondback Energy
FANG
$55.1B
| $1.05M | 0.21% |
+7,333
| New | +$1.04M |
|
154
GeneDx Holdings
WGS
$1.8B
| $1.05M | 0.21% |
+9,700
| New | +$1.06M |
|
155
Dollar General
DG
$27.2B
| $1.03M | 0.21% |
9,974
-13,326
| -57% | -$1.46M |
|
156
Intuitive Surgical
ISRG
$128B
| $1.03M | 0.21% |
+2,300
| New | +$1.1M |
|
157
Middleby
MIDD
$6.15B
| $1.02M | 0.21% |
+7,700
| New | +$1.07M |
|
158
Edison International
EIX
$30.3B
| $1.02M | 0.21% |
+18,500
| New | +$998K |
|
159
Principal Financial Group
PFG
$24B
| $1.02M | 0.21% |
+12,300
| New | +$983K |
|
160
nVent Electric
NVT
$24.1B
| $1.02M | 0.21% |
+10,332
| New | +$897K |
|
161
Monolithic Power Systems
MPWR
$65.8B
| $1.01M | 0.21% |
+1,100
| New | +$892K |
|
162
Service Corp International
SCI
$11.4B
| $1.01M | 0.21% |
12,144
+3,544
| +41% | +$283K |
|
163
JFrog
FROG
$9.84B
| $999K | 0.2% |
+21,100
| New | +$953K |
|
164
PepsiCo
PEP
$191B
| $997K | 0.2% |
7,100
-51,100
| -88% | -$7.3M |
|
165
Pinduoduo
PDD
$121B
| $991K | 0.2% |
+7,500
| New | +$888K |
|
166
Penumbra
PEN
$12.6B
| $989K | 0.2% |
+3,903
| New | +$984K |
|
167
News Corp Class B
NWS
$16.8B
| $981K | 0.2% |
+28,400
| New | +$959K |
|
168
Rocket Companies
RKT
$38.2B
| $975K | 0.2% |
+50,300
| New | +$877K |
|
169
Primoris Services
PRIM
$4.64B
| $974K | 0.2% |
+7,094
| New | +$762K |
|
170
Trip.com Group
TCOM
$28.2B
| $955K | 0.2% |
+12,700
| New | +$849K |
|
171
BWX Technologies
BWXT
$16.2B
| $949K | 0.19% |
+5,145
| New | +$828K |
|
172
Comfort Systems
FIX
$60.9B
| $942K | 0.19% |
+1,141
| New | +$773K |
|
173
Ambarella
AMBA
$2.99B
| $941K | 0.19% |
+11,400
| New | +$828K |
|
174
Hewlett Packard
HPE
$63.8B
| $939K | 0.19% |
38,230
-240,923
| -86% | -$5.33M |
|
175
Sony
SONY
$131B
| $916K | 0.19% |
31,800
-12,500
| -28% | -$336K |
|
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Bayesian Capital Management's Q3 2025 Portfolio in Review
As of Q3 2025, Bayesian Capital Management held 855 positions worth $490M, down 23% from $633M the previous quarter. Its ten largest holdings account for 10% of the portfolio.
Bayesian Capital Management withdrew a net $164M in Q3 2025, closing 352 positions and reducing 95 holdings. Its most notable exit was Nike, an estimated $14.8M position sold in full.
By sector, the portfolio is most concentrated in Technology at 27% of assets, up from 25% a quarter earlier, followed by Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare.
Against the trend, Bayesian Capital Management opened a new position in Microsoft worth $6.32M.
- Bayesian Capital Management's largest Q3 2025 buy was Microsoft: 12,200 shares worth $6.32M.
- Bayesian Capital Management added most to Idexx Laboratories in Q3 2025, an estimated $3.81M increase.
- Bayesian Capital Management's biggest Q3 2025 reduction was Walt Disney, cutting an estimated $9.89M.
- Bayesian Capital Management fully exited Nike in Q3 2025, selling an estimated $14.8M.
- Bayesian Capital Management's ten largest holdings make up 10% of its $490M portfolio in Q3 2025.
- Bayesian Capital Management opened 346 new positions and closed 352 in Q3 2025.
- Bayesian Capital Management's portfolio value fell 23% quarter-over-quarter to $490M.
Based on Bayesian Capital Management's 13F filing for Q3 2025, filed 14 Nov 2025.