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BCM
Bayesian Capital Management Portfolio holdings
AUM
$81.9M
1-Year Est. Return
26.59%
This Fund
S&P 500
This Quarter
Est. Return
-13.55%
1 Year Est. Return
+26.59%
3 Year Est. Return
+112.98%
5 Year Est. Return
+129.77%
10 Year Est. Return
+1,146.62%
AUM
$488M
AUM Growth
-$122M
(-20%)
Cap. Flow
-$46M
Cap. Flow
% of AUM
-9.42%
Top 10 Holdings %
Top 10 Hldgs %
12.26%
Holding
885
New
278
Increased
177
Reduced
136
Closed
293
Top Buys
| Rank | Stock | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Nike
NKE
|
+$7.96M |
| 2 |
Microsoft
MSFT
|
+$6.24M |
| 3 |
Estee Lauder
EL
|
+$5.96M |
| 4 |
Cisco
CSCO
|
+$5.04M |
| 5 |
WBA
Walgreens Boots Alliance
WBA
|
+$4.16M |
Top Sells
| Rank | Stock | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
lululemon athletica
LULU
|
+$6.86M |
| 2 |
Lowe's Companies
LOW
|
+$6.56M |
| 3 |
TIF
Tiffany & Co.
TIF
|
+$6.19M |
| 4 |
FDC
First Data Corporation
FDC
|
+$5.8M |
| 5 |
Qualcomm
QCOM
|
+$5.49M |
Sector Composition
| Rank | Sector | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Technology | 24.54% |
| 2 | Consumer Discretionary | 16.56% |
| 3 | Healthcare | 14.16% |
| 4 | Industrials | 11.69% |
| 5 | Consumer Staples | 7.51% |
| Name | Market Value | Portfolio Weight | Shares or Principal |
Change in Stake | Capital Flow | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
Nike
NKE
$62.6B
| $7.89M | 1.61% |
+106,400
| New | +$7.96M |
|
|
2
Microsoft
MSFT
$2.92T
| $7.57M | 1.55% |
74,485
+58,285
| +360% | +$6.24M |
|
3
Apple
AAPL
$4.93T
| $6.97M | 1.43% |
176,796
+61,596
| +53% | +$2.99M |
|
4
Medtronic
MDT
$108B
| $6.29M | 1.29% |
69,145
-4,300
| -6% | -$402K |
|
5
Walmart Inc
WMT
$887B
| $5.82M | 1.19% |
187,428
-158,172
| -46% | -$5.07M |
|
|
6
Estee Lauder
EL
$29.8B
| $5.71M | 1.17% |
+43,900
| New | +$5.96M |
|
7
Expedia Group
EXPE
$33.6B
| $5.2M | 1.07% |
46,200
-5,700
| -11% | -$682K |
|
8
Mondelez International
MDLZ
$77.8B
| $5.03M | 1.03% |
125,700
+72,300
| +135% | +$3.08M |
|
|
9
Cisco
CSCO
$450B
| $4.78M | 0.98% |
+110,200
| New | +$5.04M |
|
10
Advance Auto Parts
AAP
$3.48B
| $4.64M | 0.95% |
29,500
+10,100
| +52% | +$1.69M |
|
|
XLNX
11
DELISTED
Xilinx Inc
XLNX
| $4.45M | 0.91% |
52,196
+21,300
| +69% | +$1.78M |
|
12
Roper Technologies
ROP
$37.6B
| $4.38M | 0.9% |
16,433
+13,748
| +512% | +$3.89M |
|
13
Danaher
DHR
$137B
| $3.88M | 0.79% |
42,422
-8,979
| -17% | -$815K |
|
14
Comcast
CMCSA
$82.3B
| $3.86M | 0.79% |
113,300
+83,400
| +279% | +$3.04M |
|
15
Berkshire Hathaway Class B
BRK.B
$1.07T
| $3.69M | 0.76% |
18,064
-40
| -0.2% | -$8.36K |
|
16
Ciena
CIEN
$52.4B
| $3.68M | 0.75% |
108,553
+8,600
| +9% | +$273K |
|
|
WBA
17
DELISTED
Walgreens Boots Alliance
WBA
| $3.66M | 0.75% |
+53,626
| New | +$4.16M |
|
18
Autodesk
ADSK
$47.8B
| $3.65M | 0.75% |
28,400
+17,200
| +154% | +$2.32M |
|
|
CTXS
19
DELISTED
Citrix Systems Inc
CTXS
| $3.6M | 0.74% |
35,135
-21,500
| -38% | -$2.27M |
|
20
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
SPY
$780B
| $3.55M | 0.73% |
14,200
-12,600
| -47% | -$3.4M |
|
21
Molina Healthcare
MOH
$10.6B
| $3.3M | 0.68% |
28,372
+201
| +0.7% | +$26.3K |
|
22
T-Mobile US
TMUS
$193B
| $3.28M | 0.67% |
51,519
+37,328
| +263% | +$2.51M |
|
23
Take-Two Interactive
TTWO
$44.7B
| $3.27M | 0.67% |
31,758
+8,296
| +35% | +$955K |
|
24
Verizon
VZ
$198B
| $3.23M | 0.66% |
57,387
+10,487
| +22% | +$595K |
|
25
Broadcom
AVGO
$1.81T
| $3.07M | 0.63% |
+120,730
| New | +$2.85M |
|
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Bayesian Capital Management's Q4 2018 Portfolio in Review
As of Q4 2018, Bayesian Capital Management held 885 positions worth $488M, down 20% from $611M the previous quarter. Its ten largest holdings account for 12% of the portfolio.
Bayesian Capital Management withdrew a net $46M in Q4 2018, closing 293 positions and reducing 136 holdings. Its most notable exit was Lowe's Companies, an estimated $6.56M position sold in full.
By sector, the portfolio is most concentrated in Technology at 25% of assets, up from 19% a quarter earlier, followed by Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare.
Against the trend, Bayesian Capital Management opened a new position in Nike worth $7.89M.
- Bayesian Capital Management's largest Q4 2018 buy was Nike: 106,400 shares worth $7.89M.
- Bayesian Capital Management added most to Microsoft in Q4 2018, an estimated $6.24M increase.
- Bayesian Capital Management's biggest Q4 2018 reduction was lululemon athletica, cutting an estimated $6.86M.
- Bayesian Capital Management fully exited Lowe's Companies in Q4 2018, selling an estimated $6.56M.
- Bayesian Capital Management's ten largest holdings make up 12% of its $488M portfolio in Q4 2018.
- Bayesian Capital Management opened 278 new positions and closed 293 in Q4 2018.
- Bayesian Capital Management's portfolio value fell 20% quarter-over-quarter to $488M.
Based on Bayesian Capital Management's 13F filing for Q4 2018, filed 13 Feb 2019.