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BCM
Bayesian Capital Management Portfolio holdings
AUM
$81.9M
1-Year Est. Return
26.59%
This Fund
S&P 500
This Quarter
Est. Return
-3.38%
1 Year Est. Return
+26.59%
3 Year Est. Return
+112.98%
5 Year Est. Return
+129.77%
10 Year Est. Return
+1,146.62%
AUM
$43.6M
AUM Growth
-$446M
(-91%)
Cap. Flow
-$442M
Cap. Flow
% of AUM
-1,013.48%
Top 10 Holdings %
Top 10 Hldgs %
28.16%
Holding
580
New
77
Increased
4
Reduced
27
Closed
472
Top Buys
| Rank | Stock | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
JPMorgan Chase
JPM
|
+$1.24M |
| 2 |
TSMC
TSM
|
+$1.13M |
| 3 |
NuScale Power
SMR
|
+$1.11M |
| 4 |
Trade Desk
TTD
|
+$1.02M |
| 5 |
Microchip Technology
MCHP
|
+$910K |
Top Sells
| Rank | Stock | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Boston Scientific
BSX
|
+$5.39M |
| 2 |
Accenture
ACN
|
+$5.35M |
| 3 |
CRWV
CoreWeave
CRWV
|
+$4.97M |
| 4 |
Robinhood
HOOD
|
+$4.87M |
| 5 |
Expedia Group
EXPE
|
+$4.81M |
Sector Composition
| Rank | Sector | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Technology | 25.63% |
| 2 | Healthcare | 13.02% |
| 3 | Communication Services | 12.94% |
| 4 | Consumer Discretionary | 11.11% |
| 5 | Industrials | 9.67% |
| Name | Market Value | Portfolio Weight | Shares or Principal |
Change in Stake | Capital Flow | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
26
Hormel Foods
HRL
$13.9B
| $505K | 1.16% |
+21,300
| New | +$497K |
|
27
Telus
TU
$16B
| $465K | 1.07% |
+35,300
| New | +$497K |
|
28
Fastenal
FAST
$54B
| $449K | 1.03% |
+11,200
| New | +$471K |
|
29
Brighthouse Financial
BHF
$3.63B
| $419K | 0.96% |
+6,466
| New | +$380K |
|
30
LKQ Corp
LKQ
$6.58B
| $402K | 0.92% |
+13,306
| New | +$401K |
|
31
Annaly Capital Management
NLY
$16.9B
| $398K | 0.91% |
+17,800
| New | +$388K |
|
32
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
SPY
$778B
| $396K | 0.91% |
580
-3,120
| -84% | -$2.11M |
|
33
Occidental Petroleum
OXY
$57B
| $387K | 0.89% |
9,400
-14,500
| -61% | -$605K |
|
34
SAP
SAP
$187B
| $383K | 0.88% |
+1,578
| New | +$402K |
|
35
General Mills
GIS
$19.2B
| $377K | 0.86% |
8,107
-46,793
| -85% | -$2.22M |
|
|
FISV
36
Fiserv Inc
FISV
$27.2B
| $376K | 0.86% |
+5,600
| New | +$469K |
|
37
Brown-Forman Class B
BF.B
$12B
| $370K | 0.85% |
14,200
-18,400
| -56% | -$518K |
|
38
Lyft
LYFT
$5.39B
| $368K | 0.84% |
+19,000
| New | +$395K |
|
39
Chewy
CHWY
$8.54B
| $365K | 0.84% |
+11,030
| New | +$383K |
|
40
Hasbro
HAS
$12.6B
| $361K | 0.83% |
4,400
-14,319
| -76% | -$1.12M |
|
41
Mercado Libre
MELI
$91.3B
| $357K | 0.82% |
+177
| New | +$372K |
|
42
Archer Aviation
ACHR
$3.64B
| $339K | 0.78% |
+45,100
| New | +$424K |
|
43
Toast
TOST
$16.8B
| $337K | 0.77% |
+9,500
| New | +$342K |
|
44
TeraWulf
WULF
$9.15B
| $329K | 0.75% |
+28,600
| New | +$383K |
|
45
Halozyme
HALO
$9.72B
| $323K | 0.74% |
4,804
-29,678
| -86% | -$2M |
|
46
ExxonMobil
XOM
$651B
| $313K | 0.72% |
2,600
-3,500
| -57% | -$406K |
|
47
Chipotle Mexican Grill
CMG
$40.8B
| $308K | 0.71% |
+8,318
| New | +$301K |
|
48
Texas Instruments
TXN
$255B
| $303K | 0.69% |
+1,747
| New | +$299K |
|
49
Baxter International
BAX
$11.6B
| $298K | 0.68% |
15,600
-300
| -2% | -$6K |
|
50
Ulta Beauty
ULTA
$20.4B
| $293K | 0.67% |
+484
| New | +$266K |
|
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Bayesian Capital Management's Q4 2025 Portfolio in Review
As of Q4 2025, Bayesian Capital Management held 580 positions worth $43.6M, down 91% from $490M the previous quarter. Its ten largest holdings account for 28% of the portfolio.
Bayesian Capital Management withdrew a net $442M in Q4 2025, closing 472 positions and reducing 27 holdings. Its most notable exit was Boston Scientific, an estimated $5.39M position sold in full.
By sector, the portfolio is most concentrated in Technology at 26% of assets, down from 27% a quarter earlier, followed by Healthcare and Communication Services.
Against the trend, Bayesian Capital Management opened a new position in JPMorgan Chase worth $1.29M.
- Bayesian Capital Management's largest Q4 2025 buy was JPMorgan Chase: 4,000 shares worth $1.29M.
- Bayesian Capital Management added most to TSMC in Q4 2025, an estimated $1.13M increase.
- Bayesian Capital Management's biggest Q4 2025 reduction was Meta Platforms (Facebook), cutting an estimated $4.54M.
- Bayesian Capital Management fully exited Boston Scientific in Q4 2025, selling an estimated $5.39M.
- Bayesian Capital Management's ten largest holdings make up 28% of its $43.6M portfolio in Q4 2025.
- Bayesian Capital Management opened 77 new positions and closed 472 in Q4 2025.
- Bayesian Capital Management's portfolio value fell 91% quarter-over-quarter to $43.6M.
Based on Bayesian Capital Management's 13F filing for Q4 2025, filed 17 Feb 2026.