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PFM
Probabilities Fund Management Portfolio holdings
AUM
$28.1M
1-Year Est. Return
54.68%
This Fund
S&P 500
This Quarter
Est. Return
+10.34%
1 Year Est. Return
+54.68%
3 Year Est. Return
–
5 Year Est. Return
–
10 Year Est. Return
–
AUM
$44.4M
AUM Growth
-$23.5M
(-35%)
Cap. Flow
-$30M
Cap. Flow
% of AUM
-67.52%
Top 10 Holdings %
Top 10 Hldgs %
59.37%
Holding
51
New
6
Increased
12
Reduced
19
Closed
2
Top Buys
| Rank | Stock | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
FAX
abrdn Asia-Pacific Income Fund
FAX
|
+$608K |
| 2 |
Seacoast Banking Corp of Florida
SBCF
|
+$310K |
| 3 |
SPDR Gold Trust
GLD
|
+$227K |
| 4 |
DM
Dominion Energy Midstream Ptr LP
DM
|
+$220K |
| 5 |
TYG
Tortoise Energy Infrastructure Corp
TYG
|
+$218K |
Top Sells
| Rank | Stock | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
UPRO
|
+$7.02M |
| 2 |
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO
|
+$6.2M |
| 3 |
Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF
VTI
|
+$5.29M |
| 4 |
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
SPY
|
+$4.47M |
| 5 |
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF
SPXL
|
+$3.68M |
Sector Composition
| Rank | Sector | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Technology | 6.86% |
| 2 | Financials | 6.77% |
| 3 | Energy | 5.94% |
| 4 | Consumer Staples | 3.12% |
| 5 | Healthcare | 2.33% |
| Name | Market Value | Portfolio Weight | Shares or Principal |
Change in Stake | Capital Flow | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF
SPXL
$6.72B
| $5.34M | 12.02% |
98,248
-72,115
| -42% | -$3.68M |
|
2
ProShares Ultra Dow30
DDM
$542M
| $5.19M | 11.69% |
209,982
-153,372
| -42% | -$3.56M |
|
|
3
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
SPY
$790B
| $3.54M | 7.97% |
12,175
-15,694
| -56% | -$4.47M |
|
4
Bank of America
BAC
$435B
| $2.17M | 4.89% |
73,702
+330
| +0.4% | +$10.1K |
|
5
Microsoft
MSFT
$3.45T
| $1.82M | 4.09% |
15,886
-100
| -0.6% | -$10.8K |
|
|
6
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
UPRO
$5.23B
| $1.78M | 4.01% |
62,084
-261,076
| -81% | -$7.02M |
|
|
7
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO
$979B
| $1.77M | 3.99% |
6,623
-23,696
| -78% | -$6.2M |
|
|
8
Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF
VTI
$660B
| $1.76M | 3.97% |
11,765
-35,959
| -75% | -$5.29M |
|
|
PACW
9
DELISTED
PacWest Bancorp
PACW
| $1.57M | 3.54% |
32,950
-1
| -0% | -$50 |
|
10
ProShares UltraPro Dow 30
UDOW
$841M
| $1.42M | 3.2% |
52,100
-53,452
| -51% | -$1.33M |
|
11
iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF
IWO
$14.3B
| $1.24M | 2.78% |
5,740
-65
| -1% | -$13.9K |
|
|
FAX
12
DELISTED
abrdn Asia-Pacific Income Fund
FAX
| $1.04M | 2.35% |
41,930
+23,937
| +133% | +$608K |
|
|
CVGW
13
DELISTED
Calavo Growers
CVGW
| $1.01M | 2.28% |
10,474
| – | – |
|
14
Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF
RSP
$97B
| $938K | 2.11% |
8,780
+150
| +2% | +$15.9K |
|
15
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF
EFA
$78B
| $821K | 1.85% |
12,077
+25
| +0.2% | +$1.69K |
|
16
Enterprise Products Partners
EPD
$82.3B
| $770K | 1.73% |
26,790
-1,800
| -6% | -$52K |
|
17
Nuveen California Quality Municipal Income Fund
NAC
$1.83B
| $743K | 1.67% |
57,433
| – | – |
|
18
ExxonMobil
XOM
$644B
| $730K | 1.64% |
8,586
-1
| -0% | -$82 |
|
19
Dominion Energy
D
$60.8B
| $724K | 1.63% |
10,306
-100
| -1% | -$7.08K |
|
|
BPL
20
DELISTED
Buckeye Partners, L.P.
BPL
| $654K | 1.47% |
18,320
+1,712
| +10% | +$61.3K |
|
21
iShares Core S&P 500 ETF
IVV
$878B
| $586K | 1.32% |
2,002
| – | – |
|
|
22
Bank of America Series L
BAC.PRL
$3.97B
| $557K | 1.25% |
430
| – | – |
|
23
Qualcomm
QCOM
$155B
| $557K | 1.25% |
7,734
| – | – |
|
24
AT&T
T
$159B
| $556K | 1.25% |
21,928
+1,720
| +9% | +$42.1K |
|
25
Chevron
CVX
$392B
| $483K | 1.09% |
3,950
-1
| -0% | -$121 |
|
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Probabilities Fund Management's Q3 2018 Portfolio in Review
As of Q3 2018, Probabilities Fund Management held 51 positions worth $44.4M, down 35% from $67.9M the previous quarter. Its ten largest holdings account for 59% of the portfolio.
Probabilities Fund Management withdrew a net $30M in Q3 2018, closing 2 positions and reducing 19 holdings. Its most notable exit was State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF, an estimated $236K position sold in full.
By sector, the portfolio is most concentrated in Technology at 6.9% of assets, up from 3.6% a quarter earlier, followed by Financials and Energy.
Against the trend, Probabilities Fund Management opened a new position in Seacoast Banking Corp of Florida worth $226K.
- Probabilities Fund Management's largest Q3 2018 buy was Seacoast Banking Corp of Florida: 10,000 shares worth $226K.
- Probabilities Fund Management added most to abrdn Asia-Pacific Income Fund in Q3 2018, an estimated $608K increase.
- Probabilities Fund Management's biggest Q3 2018 reduction was ProShares UltraPro S&P 500, cutting an estimated $7.02M.
- Probabilities Fund Management fully exited State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF in Q3 2018, selling an estimated $236K.
- Probabilities Fund Management's ten largest holdings make up 59% of its $44.4M portfolio in Q3 2018.
- Probabilities Fund Management opened 6 new positions and closed 2 in Q3 2018.
- Probabilities Fund Management's portfolio value fell 35% quarter-over-quarter to $44.4M.
Based on Probabilities Fund Management's 13F filing for Q3 2018, filed 14 Nov 2018.