MBB: Intermediate Duration Not Suitable At The Head Of Possible Rate Hiking Cycle
The iShares MBS ETF (MBB) faces downside risk due to rising intermediate-term rates and persistent inflation pressures as an intermediate duration FI exposure. Convexity risk and borrower prepayment optionality limit MBB's upside in speculative positive developments, while effective duration of 5.68 years exposes it to a possible rate hiking cycle incoming. Fed's hawkish stance, strong jobs data, geopolitical instability, and crowding out dynamics in debt markets reinforce the bear case for MBB as a duration bet.