24 Signal confidence

A Signal Is a Pattern in Fund Behaviour, Scored Against Its Own History

The platform watches for thirteen patterns in the way funds behave. When one of them appears in a company, that is a signal. Here is how each pattern is scored.

140,339

past cases scored across all thirteen patterns

The eight strongest of thirteen patterns Scored at a 10% rise
  1. 1

    The pattern appears

    A burst of buying, funds doubling down, a jump in calls

  2. 2

    Every past case is found

    140,339 earlier occurrences, across all thirteen

  3. 3

    What followed is counted

    How often the share then rose 10%, and how fast

What the platform sees Later rose 10%
Top-performing funds at least doubled a stake 86.8%
Top-ten holdings grew faster than 90% of the sector 86.3%
3× the sector average opened a position 86.0%
3× the sector average added to a position 85.5%
3× the sector average hold it in their top ten 85.2%
Call options at 3× the sector average 84.4%
New buying in the busiest tenth of its sector 84.2%
More funds doubled their stake than at any company its size 83.9%
Funds doubling down Conviction Weight of new money Options buying See every signal →

Four families of pattern, thirteen in total, every one built from the same disclosures as the rest of this report. The next two pages show the record behind them, and what one looked like the last time it worked.