17 High conviction

The Biggest Conviction Trades Were Into the Index, Not Into Stocks

A large trade from a large fund means little. A trade that doubles or triples a position the fund already held is a decision. Sorted that way, the quarter looks very different.

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of the largest conviction purchases were S&P 500 trackers, not companies

Stakes doubled, tripled and cut Ranked by position size

They tripled down on

Fund and trade Stake Size
Jane Street S&P 500 tracker · SPY +118% $17.4bn
CalPERS S&P 500 tracker · IVV +1,098% $10.1bn
Citadel S&P 500 tracker · IVV +335% $9.91bn
D. E. Shaw S&P 500 tracker · SPY +1,782% $9.63bn
Berkshire Hathaway Alphabet +658% $8.44bn
SG Americas Microsoft +339% $7.43bn
T. Rowe Price Micron +165% $6.62bn
Invesco SanDisk +381% $6.35bn

They cut hard

Fund and trade Stake Size
Fidelity Marvell −57% $14.9bn
Sanders Capital Seagate −73% $7.18bn
BlackRock Honeywell † −53% $5.81bn
LM Advisors Berkshire Hathaway Sold out $5.17bn
Fidelity Coherent −51% $4.12bn
Arrowstreet Broadcom −54% $4.07bn
Bank of Nova Scotia Booking Holdings −97% $3.60bn
Fidelity Lumentum −51% $3.27bn

Four of the eight largest conviction purchases in the market were S&P 500 trackers. When these funds went all in, most of them went all in on the index rather than on a company.

S&P 500 trackers

The honest answer to “what is the smart money buying” is partly the index. That is less exciting than a stock tip and a great deal more useful to a client.