18 A cautionary tale

The Rise and Fall of a $20 Billion Fund

Disclosures are most revealing read two in a row. Situational Awareness LP, run by Leopold Aschenbrenner, removed almost all its protection between March and June.

91.8%

of the fund sat in its ten largest positions by June, up from 72.7% in March

Two disclosures, side by side 31 March → 30 June 2026

At the end of March

72.7% in its top ten

Protection held

$7.7bn

Held against the chip and AI complex, and larger than any sector in the book.

At the end of June

91.8% in its top ten

Protection held

About $5m

Technology was 77.7% of the book. Micron and SanDisk were its two biggest purchases.

What happened next. It is reported to have fallen 67% in July and sold roughly $16bn of shares to Citadel at a discount after margin calls - two weeks before this disclosure became public on 14 August.

What it did in the quarter

+185%

Estimated return

The strongest of any fund managing over $10bn.

40.9%

of the fund put to work

In three months. The next most active investor we track committed 27%.

20 of 46

Positions closed

This is what taking off a seatbelt looks like in a disclosure.

Two disclosures, read side by side, showed the risk building in plain sight. Nobody could have acted in time - but the concentration was there in black and white for anyone who looked.