ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury

UBT

市值 US$6990萬

Treasury Secretary Bessent insists on challenging the bond vigilantes, and neither side is backing down. The underlying trends are pointing toward volatility ahead and potentially much more.

On Wednesday, July 29, the FOMC rate decision will be followed by Microsoft and Meta earnings after the close. Thursday begins with the advance estimate of Q2 GDP and the June PCE inflation report before Apple and Amazon report after the bell. CME FedWatch currently implies a 62–65% probability that the Fed holds rates in July, with the remaining probability assigned to a hike.

The stock market correction has raised fears of a recession, with the VIX index showing elevated volatility amid geopolitical and domestic uncertainties. The Trump administration's tariff initiatives and energy policies are causing market volatility but could potentially lower inflation and support a bond market rally. February's CPI data indicates receding inflation, suggesting the Fed may continue cutting short-term rates, which could boost economic growth and lower long-term rates.

The ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury ETF (UBT) aims to deliver twice the daily performance of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. UBT manages $116.30M, charges a 0.95% expense ratio, and leverages through swaps with a weighted average maturity of 25.90 years and duration of 17.58 years. Key drivers include monetary policy, inflation expectations, growth, geopolitical factors, and compounding from leverage resetting.

Long-duration Treasuries might be a buy, especially in a recession; consider ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury ETF for leveraged exposure. UBT aims for 2x daily returns of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index, using swaps for leverage. UBT's moderate leverage and lower expense ratio make it appealing compared to peers like Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares.

The ECB cut rates by 25bp as widely anticipated, but a slightly hawkish tilt bear flattened the EUR curve, which in our view remains priced aggressively. In the US, as the markets head towards the Fed's first rate cut, the probability of a larger cut rose slightly on Thursday.

Jon Wolfenbarger aims to help individual investors generate double-digit profits and beat the market in both bull and bear markets.

Treasuries are on a sharp rally fueled by bets that Fed rate hikes might be nearing an end. Investors could tap the opportune moment by going long on this instrument with the help of ETFs to make quick profits.