VanEck International High Yield Bond ETF

IHY

市值 US$3948萬

The long-run return forecast for the Global Market Index continued to edge higher in September. Fueled by a decline in financial markets last month, GMI's projected return increased for a fifth straight month.

The total return forecast for the Global Market Index continued to tick higher in August for the long-run outlook. The latest GMI return forecast (an annualized 8.1% performance) is modestly above last month's estimate but still far short of the benchmark's trailing return for the past ten years, although the gap has been narrowing lately.

Diversifying into foreign bond markets has been a win for US investors this year, based on a review of a set of ETFs through Aug. 27's close. The Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF, a proxy for government and investment‑grade corporates, is essentially flat, posting a fractional 0.2% rise.

Many investors need more than traditional bonds can deliver. VanEck provides access to a range of higher-yielding asset classes built for today's income environment.

With the Iran war escalating, the conflict is again getting harder to ignore, which strengthens the case for maintaining a globally diversified portfolio. Energy prices are rising again, and the specter of elevated inflation and potential Federal Reserve rate hikes is once more a risk factor on the march.

The outlook for long-term total return for the Global Market Index (GMI) edged up again in June, touching the highest level in recent history. Despite the recent rise, the expected performance remains well below GMI's realized return over the trailing ten-year window.

Prices for raw materials have rocketed higher so far this year, outperforming the rest of the major asset classes by a wide margin through Friday's close (Jan. 23), based on a set of ETFs.

Echoing the strong run in foreign equities in 2025, bond markets ex-US are also having a good year. Using a set of ETFs to track the major international buckets of fixed-income securities shows across-the-board outperformance over a popular US benchmark through Wednesday's close (Dec. 17).

I rate IHY as a Buy, due to its strong historical outperformance of the core bond index by 285 basis points annually over 26 years. IHY offers solid diversification benefits, equity independence, and a higher yield compared to AGG, making it attractive for international fixed-income exposure. Despite its higher expense ratio and notable index lag, IHY's yield and inflation resilience outweigh these drawbacks for yield-seeking investors.

Global equities ex-US are the leaders, along with a broad measure of commodities, based on a set of ETFs through Friday's close. Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF has rallied 7.2% so far this year.