iShares 25+ Year Treasury STRIPS Bond ETF

GOVZ

市值 US$3.27億

After accurately predicting the sharp drop in long bonds, the author is turning neutral/constructive, believing most of the price decline is already in the past. Long bonds are deeply oversold (GOVZ RSI touched 25 before rising to 37), and 30-year yields near 5.6% are approaching a major, multi-decade resistance zone of 6%. The U.S. Treasury is expected to reduce auction sizes for long-dated bonds (like 20- and 30-year debt) in favor of shorter T-bills to keep government funding costs manageable.

Treasury Secretary Bessent insists on challenging the bond vigilantes, and neither side is backing down. The underlying trends are pointing toward volatility ahead and potentially much more.

On Wednesday, July 29, the FOMC rate decision will be followed by Microsoft and Meta earnings after the close. Thursday begins with the advance estimate of Q2 GDP and the June PCE inflation report before Apple and Amazon report after the bell. CME FedWatch currently implies a 62–65% probability that the Fed holds rates in July, with the remaining probability assigned to a hike.

iShares 25+ Year Treasury STRIPS Bond ETF faces significant risks from its extreme duration and sensitivity to long-term rates. GOVZ's -0.26% total return over the past year underscores that SEC yield is misleading amid rising rate volatility and macro headwinds. A hawkish Fed stance and resurgent inflation expectations threaten further losses for GOVZ, as even modest rate increases could drive sharp drawdowns.

The iShares 25+ Year Treasury STRIPS Bond ETF has posted a modest decline so far in 2026, impacted by a rise in long-term treasury yields. I expect the Fed to resume rate cuts in H2 2027 and into 2028, allowing for a circa 0.5-0.6% decline in risk-free rates across the yield curve. This in turn should be beneficial for GOVZ thanks to the ETF's high sensitivity to changes in long-term interest rates.

The iShares 25+ Year Treasury STRIPS Bond ETF offers the highest yield for Treasury bonds. That comes with a high amount of duration risk. If that is acceptable, then we will show you where you can get 25 basis points of extra yield.

The iShares 25+ Year Treasury STRIPS Bond ETF (GOVZ) offers ultra-long duration exposure, making it highly sensitive to changes in long-term rates. GOVZ faces significant risks from a steepening yield curve, or from long-term inflationary effects independent of impacts from immediate cuts. If rates fall, that is inflationary and could reflect institutional erosion to political pressures. If they don't fall it will pressure the fiscal outlook given maturity walls.

The iShares 25+ Year Treasury STRIPS Bond ETF (GOVZ) tracks an index of U.S. Treasury STRIPS with maturities of 25+ years, holding 22 zero-coupon securities with no credit risk. With a duration of 26.6 years, GOVZ is highly sensitive to interest rate changes; a 1% yield drop increases its price by ~26.6%, making it more volatile than its peers. Since early 2025, the U.S. yield curve's front end (controlled by Fed policy) has flattened, while the long end (10+ years) has widened, reflecting market concerns over fiscal deficits.

The iShares 25+ Year Treasury STRIPS Bond ETF faces pressure from inflation expectations impacting structural rates. GOVZ's long duration and sensitivity to long-term rate changes make it vulnerable to inflation re-anchoring. GOVZ is too speculative, given the uncertain rate environment and the potential for inflation to be harder to control than anticipated.

We think the Fed has time to assess the impact of tariffs, and we expect it to wait to cut rates until the data show that tariffs are impacting the real economy. So far, there are no signs of recession in the hard data. The tariff pause offers the possibility to avoid worst-case economic scenarios before the damage is crystalized. We believe technical factors will continue to drive market dislocations in spreads and sectors, and that active managers can navigate this more effectively.