Signal backtest

90% of signals have moved 5% in their direction

Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.

7,638
signals scored
77.7%
reached +5%
13
signal patterns

What the data shows

01

Company size

81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.

02

Distance below what funds paid

Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.

03

Reaching a level vs. holding on

90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9.1% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.8%.

7,638 signals opened in the last 12 months · all sizes · any distance from what funds paid

Threshold met Not met, but profitable Open Loss

Top-10 holder growth: top 10% of sector

Bullish

267 signals

85%
5%
13d median
73%
10%
23d median
62%
15%
32d median
55%
20%
41d median

Top-performing funds doubled stake

Bullish

611 signals

84%
5%
10d median
72%
10%
22d median
62%
15%
32d median
52%
20%
44d median

New positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

619 signals

82%
5%
14d median
71%
10%
30d median
60%
15%
47d median
50%
20%
58d median

Call option value: 3× sector average

Bullish

1,278 signals

80%
5%
12d median
68%
10%
27d median
59%
15%
42d median
51%
20%
55d median

Holding value drop: worst 5%

Bearish

924 signals

80%
5%
10d median
67%
10%
22d median
56%
15%
35d median
46%
20%
43d median

Increased positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

997 signals

79%
5%
19d median
67%
10%
40d median
54%
15%
57d median
44%
20%
73d median

Holding value drop: worst 10%

Bearish

2,023 signals

79%
5%
12d median
66%
10%
24d median
55%
15%
34d median
43%
20%
43d median

Top-10 holders: 3× sector average

Bullish

842 signals

79%
5%
17d median
65%
10%
39d median
54%
15%
52d median
43%
20%
68d median

Most funds doubling stake vs. market cap peers

Bullish

3,000 signals

78%
5%
10d median
68%
10%
21d median
60%
15%
34d median
53%
20%
46d median

Gross inflow: 3× sector average

Bullish

1,470 signals

78%
5%
15d median
64%
10%
32d median
52%
15%
51d median
42%
20%
67d median

New positions: top 10% of sector

Bullish

1,898 signals

78%
5%
14d median
66%
10%
29d median
55%
15%
43d median
46%
20%
57d median

Net inflow: top 10% of sector

Bullish

2,054 signals

76%
5%
14d median
65%
10%
30d median
54%
15%
48d median
45%
20%
61d median

Net inflow top 10%, few exits

Bullish

172 signals

65%
5%
7d median
48%
10%
17d median
40%
15%
22d median
34%
20%
24d median

That’s the record behind every signal.

See the latest signals

A threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.