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Signal backtest

90.1% of signals have moved 5% in their direction

Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.

731
signals scored
33.8%
reached +5%
13
signal patterns

What the data shows

01

Company size

81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.

02

Distance below what funds paid

Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.

03

Reaching a level vs. holding on

90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.7%.

Short term Long term
Opened
1M 3M 6M 12M 24M All time
Size
All Mega Cap Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap Micro Cap
From what funds paid
Any 5–15% 20–30% 35–50%

731 signals opened in the last month · all sizes · any distance from what funds paid

Threshold met Not met, but profitable Open Loss

Holding value drop: worst 5%

Bearish

40 signals

48%
5%
4d median
25%
10%
6d median
15%
15%
7d median
8%
20%
16d median

Holding value drop: worst 10%

Bearish

77 signals

43%
5%
4d median
23%
10%
6d median
9%
15%
7d median
4%
20%
16d median

Top-10 holders: 3× sector average

Bullish

71 signals

38%
5%
8d median
10%
10%
7d median
4%
15%
10d median
4%
20%
15d median

Gross inflow: 3× sector average

Bullish

125 signals

37%
5%
8d median
15%
10%
16d median
6%
15%
14d median
3%
20%
15d median

Increased positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

93 signals

37%
5%
13d median
12%
10%
15d median
3%
15%
14d median
2%
20%
16d median

New positions: top 10% of sector

Bullish

203 signals

36%
5%
7d median
13%
10%
13d median
6%
15%
14d median
4%
20%
15d median

Top-performing funds doubled stake

Bullish

35 signals

34%
5%
5d median
14%
10%
6d median
11%
15%
7d median
6%
20%
10d median

Most funds doubling stake vs. market cap peers

Bullish

345 signals

34%
5%
7d median
14%
10%
13d median
8%
15%
14d median
4%
20%
16d median

Net inflow: top 10% of sector

Bullish

219 signals

33%
5%
7d median
11%
10%
8d median
5%
15%
14d median
2%
20%
16d median

Call option value: 3× sector average

Bullish

139 signals

32%
5%
7d median
7%
10%
8d median
4%
15%
9d median
3%
20%
11d median

Top-10 holder growth: top 10% of sector

Bullish

27 signals

30%
5%
3d median
22%
10%
7d median
15%
15%
12d median
15%
20%
16d median

Net inflow top 10%, few exits

Bullish

33 signals

27%
5%
3d median
6%
10%
7d median
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

New positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

38 signals

24%
5%
3d median
16%
10%
9d median
5%
15%
12d median
5%
20%
16d median

That’s the record behind every signal.

See the latest signals

A threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.