iShares Residential and Multisector Real Estate ETF

REZ

時価総額 $7.99億

Dividend stocks are under pressure from rising long-term interest rates. What matters most in the near term is where interest rates are headed next. I detail the factors at play and where I think the best risk-adjusted places to allocate capital today are.

Surging interest rates are pressuring the housing sector, with 30-year government bond yields hitting 5.6%, their highest since 2002. Housing ETFs like XHB and ITB have underperformed the S&P 500 but have not experienced severe sell-offs, suggesting some resilience despite macro headwinds.

REITs are refusing to break despite another rate shock: the 10-Year Treasury reached 5%, yet REITs remain higher by roughly 7% in 2026 as the once-dominant rate correlation weakens further. Solid fundamentals are increasingly doing the heavy lifting, with healthy property-level cash flows, improving earnings visibility, strong dividend coverage, and better balance sheets helping REITs absorb the rate shock. Cooling supply increasingly reinforces fundamentals: excluding Data Centers, REIT development pipelines are roughly 40% below their 2022 peak and 2019 levels; Data Centers remain the exception at seven times 2019 levels.

REIT ETFs are gaining as AI drives demand for data centers and other infrastructure, offering diversified exposure and dividend income.

U.S. equity markets pulled back from record highs this week as long-term Treasury yields remained elevated, with renewed fiscal concerns after federal debt crossed $40T. Oil prices extended their rebound as stalled Iran negotiations and severely depressed Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic kept geopolitical risk elevated, pushing WTI crude another 5% higher to nearly $87/barrel. Housing data remained soft as starts, pending sales, and builder sentiment stayed depressed amid mortgage rates near 6.7%, but weak construction continued to reinforce the underlying housing shortage.

REITs concluded a surprisingly strong earnings season, with 83 REITs - or 83% - raising full-year FFO guidance, just 4% lowering, and the average outlook increasing 1.4% from prior guidance. Strong Fundamentals, Weak Tape: REITs slipped modestly during earnings season despite widespread guidance raises, as renewed interest-rate pressure outweighed improving property-level trends and earnings momentum. Upside standouts included Hotel, Industrial, Data Center, Billboard, Office, Senior Housing/Skilled Nursing, and Single-Family Rental REITs, while Self-Storage finally showed a convincing pricing inflection.

Multifamily REITs face a challenging environment, with supply peaking in 2024 and oversupply pressuring lease rates until at least 2027. Private market distress and a looming $160B–$168 billion maturity wall in 2026–2027 may create future acquisition opportunities for REITs, especially the strongest players. Group valuations are tightly packed; balance sheets are generally safe, but risks from higher yields and private market volatility remain material.

According to the Census Bureau, new home sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 628,000 in June. This represents a 1.6% increase from May's upwardly revised rate of 618,000 but a 5.6% drop from the previous year.

As REIT earnings season kicks into gear this week, we preview results and major sector trends based on recent operating indicators, company commentary, and real estate market data. REITs enter earnings season with solid momentum, outperforming the market despite elevated Treasury yields and geopolitical volatility, as investors refocus on earnings growth, property fundamentals, dividends, M&A, and capital allocation. Encouraging green shoots have become more plentiful, including resilient hotel demand, robust senior housing growth, improving apartment and industrial fundamentals, and a rebound in retail leasing following a softer Q1.

These ETF gainers of June may keep climbing in July as dovish Fed hopes, strong earnings and easing geopolitical risks support markets.