Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF

TYD

Valor de mercado US$ 28 mi

Fresh services and manufacturing sector data out Wednesday stoked concern that the Federal Reserve may have no choice but to raise interest rates one more time before the end of this year, sending 10-year Treasury yields north of 5% for the first time since 2007.

Make no bones about it, because Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh isn't: Inflation is too high. The Fed leader confirmed as much following the central bank's 25-basis-point interest rate increase on Wednesday, September 16.

Treasury Secretary Bessent insists on challenging the bond vigilantes, and neither side is backing down. The underlying trends are pointing toward volatility ahead and potentially much more.

Guessing what the Federal Reserve is going to do next is an increasingly difficult task. For some time, the war in Iran bolstered the possibility that the central bank would have to raise rates at some point this year to damp inflation.

On Wednesday, July 29, the FOMC rate decision will be followed by Microsoft and Meta earnings after the close. Thursday begins with the advance estimate of Q2 GDP and the June PCE inflation report before Apple and Amazon report after the bell. CME FedWatch currently implies a 62–65% probability that the Fed holds rates in July, with the remaining probability assigned to a hike.

May's inflation data could bring Treasury bulls back into the fray. If the Fed has the signal they need to start easing monetary policy, then it could bring up the Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (TMF) and the Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (TYD).

Tariffs are roiling the major stock market indexes with volatility. So investors have been pouring into bonds to escape the turmoil.

With the path to rate cuts clearer, Treasury bonds have been heading higher since the start of the summer, but they've taken a turn. The return of rising yields have been putting the Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bear 3X ETF (TMV) and the Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (TYO) back into positive territory.

As the U.S. Federal Reserve starts to ease monetary policy, the yield curve is starting to steepen after a couple of years inverted. In turn, this is pushing a pair of leveraged exchange traded funds (ETFs) from Direxion higher.

The ECB cut rates by 25bp as widely anticipated, but a slightly hawkish tilt bear flattened the EUR curve, which in our view remains priced aggressively. In the US, as the markets head towards the Fed's first rate cut, the probability of a larger cut rose slightly on Thursday.