State Street SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF

SPTL

Valor de mercado US$ 11,3 bi

SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF (SPTL) presents a compelling short setup following a breakdown below its 52-week low, reinforcing a bearish technical outlook. The current bear-steepening yield curve regime is unfavorable for SPTL, with long-term yields rising faster, directly impacting the ETF's price. SPTL's structural advantages over VGLT include lower tracking error, higher diversification, and slightly greater AUM, but these do not offset prevailing negative momentum.

Treasury Secretary Bessent insists on challenging the bond vigilantes, and neither side is backing down. The underlying trends are pointing toward volatility ahead and potentially much more.

On Wednesday, July 29, the FOMC rate decision will be followed by Microsoft and Meta earnings after the close. Thursday begins with the advance estimate of Q2 GDP and the June PCE inflation report before Apple and Amazon report after the bell. CME FedWatch currently implies a 62–65% probability that the Fed holds rates in July, with the remaining probability assigned to a hike.

Michael Burry has put long-duration Treasury bonds back in the spotlight, warning that a combination of AI-driven debt expansion, rising inflation volatility, elevated oil prices and mounting stress in the Treasury basis trade could keep upward pressure on long-term yields — a challenging backdrop for long-duration bond ETFs.

SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF offers 14–15 year duration exposure, highly sensitive to yield curve shifts at the 20-year mark. Recent macro events, including Fed policy and Hormuz crisis developments have flattened the yield curve, with the latter effect directly benefiting SPTL. We believe risks persist around the durability of the Iran deal due to lack of clarity, and difference in agreement points and assertions made by Trump domestically about "red lines".

SPTL is an efficient way to get exposure to the long-duration segment of the Treasury market, with low fees and similar performance to TLT. Its recent performance has been impacted by higher inflation expectations amid higher oil price levels. Short-term and longer-term conditions constitute a neutral outlook.

State Street SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF (SPTL) faces unattractive risk-reward due to macro headwinds and geopolitical risks impacting long-duration Treasuries. SPTL's expense ratio is slightly higher than iShares TLT, despite nearly identical duration and mandate, making TLT a marginally better choice. US rate cuts may ease future debt supply concerns but undermine USD demand amid isolationist policies, weakening reserve currency status and the lower nominal return from yield.

Troy Donohue, BTIG head of Americas portfolio trading, and Katie Stockton, Fairlead Strategies founder, sit down with CNBC's Bob Pisani to discuss how the world of tactical ETFs is growing, the different strategies firms are using, and how diversification is making a comeback on 'ETF Edge'.

In March, we welcomed 30 new analysts to Seeking Alpha, and in this article we are showcasing their stock picks and investment strategies. Our analysts covered a diverse set of industries—including IT, financials, utilities, materials, and mining—and provided ratings ranging from Strong Sell to Strong Buy. Top picks include C3.ai, Robinhood, Central Puerto, CF Industries, and Kyndryl.

U.S. bond yields have surged, likely due to President Trump's proposed policies, which many believe will spark inflation. We think the market has overreacted by assuming Trump's proposed policies will be implemented and/or lead to a worst-case scenario. We think the SPDR® Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF offers a low-cost opportunity to capitalise on elevated yields.