Invesco International Corporate Bond ETF

PICB

Valor de mercado US$ 343 mi

The long-run return forecast for the Global Market Index continued to edge higher in September. Fueled by a decline in financial markets last month, GMI's projected return increased for a fifth straight month.

The total return forecast for the Global Market Index continued to tick higher in August for the long-run outlook. The latest GMI return forecast (an annualized 8.1% performance) is modestly above last month's estimate but still far short of the benchmark's trailing return for the past ten years, although the gap has been narrowing lately.

Diversifying into foreign bond markets has been a win for US investors this year, based on a review of a set of ETFs through Aug. 27's close. The Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF, a proxy for government and investment‑grade corporates, is essentially flat, posting a fractional 0.2% rise.

With the Iran war escalating, the conflict is again getting harder to ignore, which strengthens the case for maintaining a globally diversified portfolio. Energy prices are rising again, and the specter of elevated inflation and potential Federal Reserve rate hikes is once more a risk factor on the march.

The outlook for long-term total return for the Global Market Index (GMI) edged up again in June, touching the highest level in recent history. Despite the recent rise, the expected performance remains well below GMI's realized return over the trailing ten-year window.

Prices for raw materials have rocketed higher so far this year, outperforming the rest of the major asset classes by a wide margin through Friday's close (Jan. 23), based on a set of ETFs.

Echoing the strong run in foreign equities in 2025, bond markets ex-US are also having a good year. Using a set of ETFs to track the major international buckets of fixed-income securities shows across-the-board outperformance over a popular US benchmark through Wednesday's close (Dec. 17).

The weak dollar, a scenario that could soon be extended with the help of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, is lifting a plethora of asset classes. This includes commodities and international equities.

With talk of rate cuts getting more audible, they almost seem inevitable. Indeed, the CME FedWatch is forecasting an almost 90% chance of cuts.

Invesco International Corporate Bond ETF is designed as a hedge or diversification tool for US dollar-based investors, offering exposure to non-USD investment-grade bonds. The fund's primary risk and return driver is the US dollar's value vs. G10 currencies, not just bond yields or credit risk. PICB has underperformed over the past decade, but its purpose is to protect against USD weakness, not to outperform in all conditions.