Invesco Dorsey Wright Consumer Cyclicals Momentum ETF

PEZ

Valor de mercado US$ 21,6 mi

Labor Day travel is heating up despite higher gas prices. Here are three ETFs positioned to benefit from strong holiday travel demand.

The U.S. consumer remains resilient enough to support earnings growth, but that resilience is increasingly concentrated. The LSEG U.S. Retail and Restaurant Q2 earnings index, which tracks changes in the growth rate of earnings within the sector, is expected to show a 67.0% growth over last year's levels. Of the 185 retailers tracked by LSEG, the Broadline Retail sector, representing a wide variety of consumer goods, is headed for the highest earnings growth rate in the second quarter, recording a 231.1% surge over last year's level.

Consumer spending has held up well despite economic headwinds. The state of inflation and the labor market will be key to watch.

The LSEG Retail/Restaurant Index reported Q1 2026 earnings growth of 27.2%. Retail earnings in the first quarter of 2026 received a significant boost from a historic tax refund season, reinforcing consumer spending at a time when the labor market remained resilient. Q2 2026 earnings are currently expected to mark the weakest growth rate of the year, with consensus forecasts calling for a gradual improvement during the second half of the year.

Consumer sentiment hits a five-month high in July. XLY, VCR, PEZ and RTH ETFs stand to benefit from the upbeat outlook.

PEZ follows a proprietary strategy to identify at least 30 U.S. Consumer Cyclical stocks with strong intermediate and long-term price momentum. Its expense ratio is 0.60%. The ETF's long-term track record and current fundamentals highly suggest that the momentum factor alone is insufficient for investing in this sector. Though PEZ's components currently have an excellent 24% estimated earnings growth rate, it's also extremely risky based on its beta, P/E, and quality characteristics.

Following on last week's top 10 list, this week's blog focuses on ETFs related to the stocks in the list. For this week, we then screened for ETFs that contained each stock that were also rated 5 (Strong Buy), focusing on the ETF that held the stock in the greatest percentage, then traveling down the lists of ETFs that held it until we found one rated 5. This resulted in a list of Strong Buy 5 rated ETFs that held at least one Strong Buy 5 rated stock as a major holding.

Wall Street was upbeat last week on Fed rate cut hopes.

To date, 145 of the 199 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q2 2024, representing 73% of the index. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 199 companies in this index is 3.5% for Q2 2024. Home Depot reported better-than-expected Q2 earnings and revenue.

Wall Street is ending the fourth quarter on a sweet note. After a Downbeat October 2023, stocks surged in November and December on the hopes of Fed rate cuts in 2024.