iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust

GSG

Valor de mercado US$ 1,07 bi

The long-run return forecast for the Global Market Index continued to edge higher in September. Fueled by a decline in financial markets last month, GMI's projected return increased for a fifth straight month.

The total return forecast for the Global Market Index continued to tick higher in August for the long-run outlook. The latest GMI return forecast (an annualized 8.1% performance) is modestly above last month's estimate but still far short of the benchmark's trailing return for the past ten years, although the gap has been narrowing lately.

Monday's Big 3 is focused on the commodity space, as Dan Russo turns to three products he sees holding potential in the coming weeks and months. He walks investors through his key takeaways on the iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust ETF (GSG), the Sprott Physical Gold Trust ETF (PHYS), and the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX).

I downgrade iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust ETF (GSG) from Buy to Hold as risks have increased and the price is now near $30.50. GSG's energy-centric exposure drove strong H1 2026 outperformance, but sector volatility and geopolitical risks warrant caution. Commodity markets remain bullish overall, but heightened volatility, cyclical corrections, and geopolitical uncertainty temper my conviction.

Dan Russo takes us through today's Big 3 by highlighting trends in the S&P 500 (SPX) as the index trades just under its all-time high. He also highlights the iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) and the iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG), believing it's important investors keep an eye on bonds and commodities in the current market environment.

Gold — the commodity most investors associate with the category — doesn't currently appear at all in one broad commodities fund's portfolio. Refined fuel contracts top the lineup instead.

The outlook for long-term total return for the Global Market Index (GMI) edged up again in June, touching the highest level in recent history. Despite the recent rise, the expected performance remains well below GMI's realized return over the trailing ten-year window.

AI, Alternative Energy and Commodity stocks are all leading this market as a confluence of economic developments drive growth and constrain supply.

March winners were clear -- Shipping, Energy, Commodities & Volatility ETFs surged as war risks, supply shocks, and market swings drove big gains.

Inflation fears resurface as oil surges and volatility spikes, pushing investors toward commodity, quality and value ETFs to navigate rising risks.