iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF

EIDO

Valor de mercado US$ 340 mi

I am upgrading iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF to a "Buy" after a 15% crash driven by MSCI index exclusion fears. EIDO trades at a depressed valuation near 6x earnings and a PEG ratio close to 1x, with risk/reward skewed positively. Bank-heavy portfolio, high volatility, and recent dividend cut highlight risk, but technicals suggest a powerful rebound is possible.

Indonesian stocks tumbled after MSCI Inc. said the country no longer merits emerging-market status, risking an ejection from its global indexes and triggering fears of foreign capital flight. Bloomberg's Anthony Stephens breaks down the developments.

Indonesia is anticipating 6% growth while being conservative on its budget deficit. Economists aren't sure the country will be able to grow to that extent.

Bank Indonesia kept its benchmark seven-day reverse repo rate unchanged at 5.75%, as the rupiah stabilizes and it gauges the impact of prior interest-rate hikes.

Foreign investors continued pulling money from Asian equities in July, but the headline outflow masks a striking shift underneath: capital moved away from the region's biggest AI winners while selectively returning to markets with less dependence on the semiconductor boom. Investors sold a net $25.48 billion of shares across seven major Asian markets during the month, extending the region's foreign-selling streak to nine months.

"After months of heavy selling, Indonesian equities simply became too cheap to ignore," according to Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia. MSCI's decision to hold off downgrading Indonesia's market status to frontier-market status came as "a big relief" to investors, Capital Economics said.

I hold a neutral stance on the iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF, citing low valuation but persistent weak price action and a technical downtrend. EIDO trades at a bargain 8.7x P/E, but its 44% financials weighting and low 5.9% long-term EPS growth limit upside. Seasonality favors EIDO in July and August, yet resistance near $17 and heavy volume overhead constrain rally potential.

Higher interest rates in some emerging Asian banking sectors will likely lead to slower credit growth by the end of 2027. Serbia's interest rate cap order will expire in September, and expectations of this are likely to boost credit growth before expiration.

Indonesia plans to embed artificial intelligence in some key government programmes including its $15 billion free meals plan, according to a ‌presidential regulation draft seen by Reuters, part of a strategy that the government believes could lift its gross domestic product by 12% by 2030.

Indonesia's central bank raised interest rates again Thursday as it seeks to support the rupiah and contain inflation risks stemming from geopolitical volatility.