Global X E-commerce ETF

EBIZ

Valor de mercado US$ 26 mi

The U.S. consumer remains resilient enough to support earnings growth, but that resilience is increasingly concentrated. The LSEG U.S. Retail and Restaurant Q2 earnings index, which tracks changes in the growth rate of earnings within the sector, is expected to show a 67.0% growth over last year's levels. Of the 185 retailers tracked by LSEG, the Broadline Retail sector, representing a wide variety of consumer goods, is headed for the highest earnings growth rate in the second quarter, recording a 231.1% surge over last year's level.

The LSEG Retail/Restaurant Index reported Q1 2026 earnings growth of 27.2%. Retail earnings in the first quarter of 2026 received a significant boost from a historic tax refund season, reinforcing consumer spending at a time when the labor market remained resilient. Q2 2026 earnings are currently expected to mark the weakest growth rate of the year, with consensus forecasts calling for a gradual improvement during the second half of the year.

American consumers are rerouting their spending rather than pulling back. With University of Michigan sentiment at 48.2, the savings rate down to 3.6% from 5.1% in early 2025, and energy prices up 14.4% year-over-year, households are making rational adjustments: buying private label at Costco, hunting TJX racks for branded apparel, fixing the old Hyundai instead of financing a new one, and listing the kids' outgrown clothes on eBay.

Retail-focused ETFs could benefit as a record 158.9 million shoppers hit stores and online on Super Saturday, boosting late-season sales momentum.

SHOP and other e-commerce giants get a boost as Black Friday online spending hits a record $11.8B, lifting ETFs tied to digital retail demand.

Heading into the holiday season, it's not clear how broad economic and consumer concerns will impact spending. However, if Black Friday 2025 is any indication, online retailers are likely to do well.

With U.S. holiday sales set to surpass $1 trillion, ETFs like RTH, EBIZ, and VDC could shine as retail spending surges.

Following on last week's top 10 list, this week's blog focuses on ETFs related to the stocks in the list. For this week, we then screened for ETFs that contained each stock that were also rated 5 (Strong Buy), focusing on the ETF that held the stock in the greatest percentage, then traveling down the lists of ETFs that held it until we found one rated 5. This resulted in a list of Strong Buy 5 rated ETFs that held at least one Strong Buy 5 rated stock as a major holding.

With the completion of a close presidential election, roughly half of us are likely disappointed regardless of the winner. To counter the post-election blues, I identified some “happy” ETF themes to consider for investment.

The integration of LLMs into digital wallets like Shop Pay, Cash App, and Apple Pay could create “purchasing agents” that transform e-commerce. According to our research, by 2030, AI Agents could drive nearly $9 trillion in global online spending.