iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF

AGG

Valor de mercado US$ 138 bi

Bonds are paying the best yields in years and still dragging portfolios into the red, leaving investors scrambling for a defensive asset that actually defends. A growing group of Wall Street managers thinks the answer involves shorting Treasuries outright.

U.S. bond yields are rising, providing an increasingly attractive alternative to pricey stocks. Trump's unorthodox policy may be causing this trend to accelerate.

US Treasury yields may ‌have further room to rise, with the Federal Reserve likely ​to deliver one or ​two more rate increases before ⁠the current tightening cycle ends, ​Dan Ivascyn, chief investment officer ​at the world's largest bond manager, told Reuters on Tuesday.

Trading activity on the Tradeweb European ETF marketplace reached EUR 69 billion in September, the second-highest level recorded for the month. Six of the ten most actively traded ETFs in September were equity-based, with two gold ETCs and two short-dated fixed income funds making up the remainder. Total consolidated U.S. ETF notional value traded in September reached USD 122 billion, up 52% year-over-year.

The global competition for capital remains the key dynamic keeping yields elevated. Notably, all of the September increase in 10-year Treasury yields came from real yields, as implied by the TIPS market.

US Treasuries resumed their retreat, lifting the 30-year yield back to its highest since 2002 as climbing oil prices raised concern about faster inflation and more central bank interest-rate increases. Vishal Khanduja, Head of Broad Markets Fixed Income at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, discusses credit spreads and whether or not yields will soon peak.

I am considering initiating a position in iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF due to rising yields and an attractive 4.2% dividend yield. AGG offers portfolio diversification and relative stability versus income stocks but faces near-term downside risk if bond yields continue rising. Current fiscal and geopolitical instability, persistent inflation, and high interest rates suggest waiting before entering AGG, with incremental buying planned if prices decline.

Japan, Europe, and the U.S. were feeling the fallout from France, where yields on its benchmark 10-year note climbed closer to 5%, the highest since 2002.

Asian market opened the week firmer on Monday as a sharp slowdown in US hiring pushed investors towards a Federal Reserve pause this month, giving rate-sensitive technology stocks room to rebound. Japan led the advance, with the Nikkei 225 jumping 2.5% above 70,000 to a three-month high, while Taiwan's Taiex gained about 2.6%.

BND has lost ground in price for five years straight, yet something has quietly shifted inside the fund that changes what the next five years could look like for anyone holding it today.