iShares Core US REIT ETF

USRT

시가총액 US$42.4억

USRT: Still Rate Sensitive Despite Data Center Exposure

REITs are refusing to break despite another rate shock: the 10-Year Treasury reached 5%, yet REITs remain higher by roughly 7% in 2026 as the once-dominant rate correlation weakens further. Solid fundamentals are increasingly doing the heavy lifting, with healthy property-level cash flows, improving earnings visibility, strong dividend coverage, and better balance sheets helping REITs absorb the rate shock. Cooling supply increasingly reinforces fundamentals: excluding Data Centers, REIT development pipelines are roughly 40% below their 2022 peak and 2019 levels; Data Centers remain the exception at seven times 2019 levels.

REIT ETFs are gaining as AI drives demand for data centers and other infrastructure, offering diversified exposure and dividend income.

U.S. equity markets pulled back from record highs this week as long-term Treasury yields remained elevated, with renewed fiscal concerns after federal debt crossed $40T. Oil prices extended their rebound as stalled Iran negotiations and severely depressed Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic kept geopolitical risk elevated, pushing WTI crude another 5% higher to nearly $87/barrel. Housing data remained soft as starts, pending sales, and builder sentiment stayed depressed amid mortgage rates near 6.7%, but weak construction continued to reinforce the underlying housing shortage.

REITs concluded a surprisingly strong earnings season, with 83 REITs - or 83% - raising full-year FFO guidance, just 4% lowering, and the average outlook increasing 1.4% from prior guidance. Strong Fundamentals, Weak Tape: REITs slipped modestly during earnings season despite widespread guidance raises, as renewed interest-rate pressure outweighed improving property-level trends and earnings momentum. Upside standouts included Hotel, Industrial, Data Center, Billboard, Office, Senior Housing/Skilled Nursing, and Single-Family Rental REITs, while Self-Storage finally showed a convincing pricing inflection.

With low valuations for the sector overall, follow-on common equity offerings for US real estate investment trusts have declined significantly in recent years. US equity REITs have largely preferred issuing common stock through at-the-market offering programs as opposed to more standard follow-on equity offerings in recent years. US REITs raised $77.58 billion through common stock sold under their ATM programs between July 1, 2022, and March 31, 2026.

As REIT earnings season kicks into gear this week, we preview results and major sector trends based on recent operating indicators, company commentary, and real estate market data. REITs enter earnings season with solid momentum, outperforming the market despite elevated Treasury yields and geopolitical volatility, as investors refocus on earnings growth, property fundamentals, dividends, M&A, and capital allocation. Encouraging green shoots have become more plentiful, including resilient hotel demand, robust senior housing growth, improving apartment and industrial fundamentals, and a rebound in retail leasing following a softer Q1.

Healthcare REITs like Medical Properties Trust and Chiron Real Estate are trading well below historical P/FFO multiples, presenting a compelling entry point. Demographic tailwinds and rising patient demand are set to drive long-term growth for the healthcare real estate sector, despite near-term reimbursement and cost headwinds. XRN is prioritizing long-term value through dividend cuts and high-return acquisitions, while MPT is recovering with ramping cash rent and portfolio diversification.

iShares Core US REIT ETF is upgraded to buy, reflecting strong YTD outperformance and a reasonable valuation. USRT benefits from declining Fed rate hike expectations, robust relative strength, and technical momentum with a breakout above key resistance. The ETF offers a 2.54% dividend yield, a low 0.08% expense ratio, and concentrated exposure—top 10 holdings comprise 48% of assets.

REITs have refused to break in 2026 despite oil-driven inflation pressure, rising Treasury yields, and a Fed narrative that flipped from multiple rate cuts to potential hikes. The “Rates Up, REITs Down” regime has weakened, with REIT-rate correlations falling sharply as fundamentals, strategy, capital allocation, and valuation catalysts increasingly drive performance. M&A has helped break the rate-driven narrative, validating public-market discounts to NAV and proving that REITs can unlock value through consolidation, privatizations, and strategic alternatives.