ProShares UltraPro Short 20+ Year Treasury

TTT

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Treasury Secretary Bessent insists on challenging the bond vigilantes, and neither side is backing down. The underlying trends are pointing toward volatility ahead and potentially much more.

On Wednesday, July 29, the FOMC rate decision will be followed by Microsoft and Meta earnings after the close. Thursday begins with the advance estimate of Q2 GDP and the June PCE inflation report before Apple and Amazon report after the bell. CME FedWatch currently implies a 62–65% probability that the Fed holds rates in July, with the remaining probability assigned to a hike.

Top Performing Leveraged/Inverse ETFs Last Week These were last week's top performing leveraged and inverse ETFs. Note that because of leverage, these kinds of funds can move quickly.

The spike in yields has led to a surge in ETFs that bet against U.S. Treasury bonds.

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The ECB cut rates by 25bp as widely anticipated, but a slightly hawkish tilt bear flattened the EUR curve, which in our view remains priced aggressively. In the US, as the markets head towards the Fed's first rate cut, the probability of a larger cut rose slightly on Thursday.

These were last week's top performing leveraged and inverse ETFs. Note that because of leverage, these kinds of funds can move quickly.

The U.S. Treasury yields are on the rise with the start of second-quarter 2024, as the hopes for interest rates cut in June cooled down following the hotter-than-expected manufacturing data.

The long-dated Treasuries posted their biggest two-day loss in months leading to a surge in ETFs that bet against U.S. Treasury bonds.