iShares Global Consumer Discretionary ETF

RXI

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The U.S. consumer remains resilient enough to support earnings growth, but that resilience is increasingly concentrated. The LSEG U.S. Retail and Restaurant Q2 earnings index, which tracks changes in the growth rate of earnings within the sector, is expected to show a 67.0% growth over last year's levels. Of the 185 retailers tracked by LSEG, the Broadline Retail sector, representing a wide variety of consumer goods, is headed for the highest earnings growth rate in the second quarter, recording a 231.1% surge over last year's level.

Consumer spending has held up well despite economic headwinds. The state of inflation and the labor market will be key to watch.

The LSEG Retail/Restaurant Index reported Q1 2026 earnings growth of 27.2%. Retail earnings in the first quarter of 2026 received a significant boost from a historic tax refund season, reinforcing consumer spending at a time when the labor market remained resilient. Q2 2026 earnings are currently expected to mark the weakest growth rate of the year, with consensus forecasts calling for a gradual improvement during the second half of the year.

To date, 145 of the 199 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q2 2024, representing 73% of the index. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 199 companies in this index is 3.5% for Q2 2024. Home Depot reported better-than-expected Q2 earnings and revenue.