Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF

TMF

時価総額 $22.6億

Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF receives a Hold rating due to a violent downtrend, F momentum, and a Strong Sell quantitative rating. TMF's 3x leverage amplifies both gains and losses, with volatility decay and tracking error making long-term holding highly risky. Entry is only considered tactical after a daily close above $27.60; current technicals and macro environment remain unfavorable for TMF.

Treasury Secretary Bessent insists on challenging the bond vigilantes, and neither side is backing down. The underlying trends are pointing toward volatility ahead and potentially much more.

On Wednesday, July 29, the FOMC rate decision will be followed by Microsoft and Meta earnings after the close. Thursday begins with the advance estimate of Q2 GDP and the June PCE inflation report before Apple and Amazon report after the bell. CME FedWatch currently implies a 62–65% probability that the Fed holds rates in July, with the remaining probability assigned to a hike.

The Case For The Leveraged TMF At The Bottom Of The Bond Market Trading Range

The Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF offers leveraged exposure to long-duration treasuries, mirroring TLT but with 3x daily leverage via swaps. TMF's daily leverage reset amplifies both gains and losses, making it a high-risk, short-term trading vehicle rather than a long-term hold. Technical indicators signal persistent volatility and downside pressure in long-duration bonds, with no clear buy signals for the fund at present.

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Pressure is mounting on the Federal Reserve to keep cutting interest rates, and dividend ETFs like Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (NYSEARCA:TMF), iShares Preferred and Income Securities (NASDAQ:PFF), and Schwab US TIPS ETF (NYSEARCA:SCHP) will be the first in line to benefit.

The Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF), is recommended as a short-term bullish trading tool amid rising long bond futures. Fed rate cuts, stable inflation, and a likely Fed leadership change in 2026 could catalyze a bond rally toward the 127.22 resistance. Persistent U.S. debt, credit downgrades, and reduced global demand pose risks to long-term rate declines and bond upside.

The Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares offers leveraged exposure to long-term Treasury rates, amplifying both gains and losses. TMF's daily resetting leverage causes value erosion, making it suitable only for short-term speculation on imminent catalysts, not for buy-and-hold investors. Current market uncertainty, data delays, and muted Fed action reduce the appeal of TMF until more significant rate decisions approach in 2026.

I expect a U.S. recession soon, making long-term Treasuries attractive as yields typically fall during economic downturns, boosting bond prices. My proprietary trading research indicates a technical bottom is likely in Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF, prompting me to initiate a small position for a speculative trade. I rate TMF a Buy for tactical bond positioning with leverage, but would not hold beyond 12 months due to swap expenses and the risk of foreign Treasury liquidations.