Janus Henderson US Real Estate ETF

JRE

Retirement income requires more than just high yield. REIT funds may not be the best solution. A balanced REIT portfolio can offer income and growth.

Janus Henderson U.S. Real Estate ETF returned 5.60% and the FTSE Nareit Equity REITs Index returned 4.80%. Data center landlords Digital Realty and Equinix added alpha, alongside global hotel brand Marriott International. Real estate services company CBRE Group and Sunbelt-focused apartment landlord Mid-America Apartment Communities detracted.

Despite recent price declines, REITs' future value has increased due to higher rental rates, increased property values, and reduced competing supply. Higher market demanded returns have steepened the slope, causing REIT prices to drop despite improved fundamentals and future value. The price drop is driven by higher expected returns, not impaired future value, making current REIT valuations a buying opportunity.

Real estate investment spreads are healthier today with higher cap rates and cost of capital, enhancing long-term returns despite similar nominal spreads. Higher cap rates lead to more accretive organic growth, reinvestment, dividends, debt reduction, and buybacks compared to the low-rate environment of early 2022. The current 8% cap rate and 6% cost of capital environment are more favorable for REITs than the previous 6% and 4% scenarios.

Passive investors commonly outperform active investors. REITs are an exception in which active strategies outperform. Here is what some of the world's best REIT investors are today buying.

Janus Henderson U.S. Real Estate ETF returned 17.21% and the FTSE Nareit Equity REITs Index returned 16.09%. Commercial real estate company CBRE Group was a top contributor to relative outperformance, while Wyndham Hotels & Resorts detracted. With the Federal Reserve now cutting rates, we believe we are not at an inflection point for U.S. Real estate.

REITs achieved their 5th straight month in the black with a +3.09% average total return in September and +9.61% year to date. Mid-cap (+5.01%), large cap (+3.41%) and small cap REITs (+2.59%) averaged solid gains in September. Micro caps (-0.42%) again averaged a negative total return. 72.3% of REIT securities had a positive total return in September.

The REIT sector continued to recover in June with a +1.12% average total return, but closed out the first half of the year in the red (-3.86%). Micro cap REITs (-3.79%) averaged a negative total return in June, but small caps (+1.01%), mid-caps (+2.29%) and large caps (+2.88%) finished in the black. 65.58% of REIT securities had a positive total return in June.

With a -4.27% average total return in April, REITs have now seen declines in 3 of the first 4 months of 2024. Micro caps (-2.71%) and small caps (-2.87%) averaged low single digit declines in April, while mid-caps (-5.36%) and large caps (-5.99%) performed even worse. 78.71% of REIT securities had a negative total return in April.

REITs bounced back from a rough start to the year with a strong +3.26% average total return in March. Mid cap (+5.04%), small cap (+3.90%) and large cap REITs (+2.32%) averaged gains in March, while micro caps (-0.32%) saw yet another month in the red. 78.06% of REIT securities had a positive total return in March.