Hoya Capital Housing ETF

HOMZ

Capitalización de mercado USD 31.7 M

REITs are refusing to break despite another rate shock: the 10-Year Treasury reached 5%, yet REITs remain higher by roughly 7% in 2026 as the once-dominant rate correlation weakens further. Solid fundamentals are increasingly doing the heavy lifting, with healthy property-level cash flows, improving earnings visibility, strong dividend coverage, and better balance sheets helping REITs absorb the rate shock. Cooling supply increasingly reinforces fundamentals: excluding Data Centers, REIT development pipelines are roughly 40% below their 2022 peak and 2019 levels; Data Centers remain the exception at seven times 2019 levels.

U.S. equity markets pulled back from record highs this week as long-term Treasury yields remained elevated, with renewed fiscal concerns after federal debt crossed $40T. Oil prices extended their rebound as stalled Iran negotiations and severely depressed Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic kept geopolitical risk elevated, pushing WTI crude another 5% higher to nearly $87/barrel. Housing data remained soft as starts, pending sales, and builder sentiment stayed depressed amid mortgage rates near 6.7%, but weak construction continued to reinforce the underlying housing shortage.

REITs concluded a surprisingly strong earnings season, with 83 REITs - or 83% - raising full-year FFO guidance, just 4% lowering, and the average outlook increasing 1.4% from prior guidance. Strong Fundamentals, Weak Tape: REITs slipped modestly during earnings season despite widespread guidance raises, as renewed interest-rate pressure outweighed improving property-level trends and earnings momentum. Upside standouts included Hotel, Industrial, Data Center, Billboard, Office, Senior Housing/Skilled Nursing, and Single-Family Rental REITs, while Self-Storage finally showed a convincing pricing inflection.

As REIT earnings season kicks into gear this week, we preview results and major sector trends based on recent operating indicators, company commentary, and real estate market data. REITs enter earnings season with solid momentum, outperforming the market despite elevated Treasury yields and geopolitical volatility, as investors refocus on earnings growth, property fundamentals, dividends, M&A, and capital allocation. Encouraging green shoots have become more plentiful, including resilient hotel demand, robust senior housing growth, improving apartment and industrial fundamentals, and a rebound in retail leasing following a softer Q1.

The prospect of an end to the war with Iran briefly sparked hopes lower oil prices and interest rates will boost housing.

REITs have refused to break in 2026 despite oil-driven inflation pressure, rising Treasury yields, and a Fed narrative that flipped from multiple rate cuts to potential hikes. The “Rates Up, REITs Down” regime has weakened, with REIT-rate correlations falling sharply as fundamentals, strategy, capital allocation, and valuation catalysts increasingly drive performance. M&A has helped break the rate-driven narrative, validating public-market discounts to NAV and proving that REITs can unlock value through consolidation, privatizations, and strategic alternatives.

Hoya Capital's David Auerbach talks solid REIT fundamentals despite elevated interest rates and macro volatility. Dividends rising and M&A activity intensifying, especially among small and mid-cap names.

Surging oil prices and hotter inflation reports reignited rate-hike concerns, sending Treasury yields to one-year highs as the Iran conflict remained stalemated despite the highly anticipated Trump-Xi summit.

U.S. equity markets advanced for a fifth straight week - their longest winning streak since 2024 - as strong earnings, resilient data, and hopes for lasting Iran peace fueled optimism. Investors looked through another oil-price surge and inflationary pressure, focusing instead on corporate resilience and economic strength despite a complex macro backdrop shaped by geopolitical and policy uncertainty. The Fed held rates steady in an unusually fractured 8-4 vote, while Powell's plan to remain on the Board broke precedent and raised politically charged succession questions.

REITs have underperformed since 2022 rate hikes, but Hoya Capital's David Auerbach says fundamentals are strong, especially among small and mid-cap names offering attractive yields. Interest rate sensitivity in REITs is often overstated.