Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Currency Trust

FXE

Börsenwert 311 Mio. $

The Fed's rate hike and stronger GDP outlook could benefit dollar, small-cap and floating-rate ETFs while supporting cash-like assets.

I rate Invesco Euro Currency Trust a Buy in September 2026, advocating a contrarian long position with a tight stop near $104.60. FXE offers attractive risk-reward, with resistance at $111.53 and support at $104.60, amid heightened U.S. policy and geopolitical risks. Despite a bearish euro trend, U.S. debt, political uncertainty, and global tensions could drive a near-term rebound in EUR/USD.

Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust earns a Buy rating with a $110 price target, reflecting a constructive outlook on EUR/USD. I expect US inflation to cool and the Fed to pause hikes, narrowing the interest rate differential and supporting FXE upside. FXE offers direct EUR/USD exposure, uncorrelated to equities, with a straightforward structure and a 0.40% expense ratio.

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European shares moved higher on Friday as investors responded positively to signs of progress in peace talks between the United States and Iran, despite both sides continuing to disagree on several major issues. The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.5% to 623.79 points by 0703 GMT and was on track to close the week with gains.

Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Currency Trust ETF (FXE) has delivered a 15% gain over 12 months, reflecting euro strength against the US dollar. FXE's rally was driven by stable ECB policy and uncertainty at the Fed, with US government actions further weighing on the dollar. The ECB is expected to hold rates steady, while Fed policy faces uncertainty with Kevin Warsh's appointment as Chair, potentially limiting further USD declines.

Over the last 100 trading days, or roughly five months, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) has surged more than 25%.

French bond yields have risen significantly against German bunds and are likely to stay elevated or potentially move higher. The European Central Bank still appears to be a reliable backstop against excessive bond turmoil.

The euro has been in a strong bullish trend against the U.S. dollar throughout 2025, supported by macroeconomic and policy factors. Key drivers for euro strength include U.S. debt concerns, lower U.S. interest rate prospects, and trade policy impacts on the dollar. Risks to the euro's rally include European debt issues, geopolitical tensions, and potential flight-to-safety flows into the dollar.

The Euro has rallied 16.23% against the U.S. dollar in 2025, breaking key technical resistance and maintaining a bullish trend. FXE ETF effectively tracks the Euro/USD exchange rate, offering liquidity and convenience for investors seeking Euro exposure in standard brokerage accounts. Despite the Euro's strength versus the dollar, gold has outperformed both, becoming the second-largest reserve asset for central banks, surpassing the Euro.