iShares MSCI World ETF

URTH

Market cap $5.91B

We run a highly concentrated portfolio of high-quality companies from around the world and some Bitcoin, which we share openly every quarter here on Seeking Alpha. We benchmark our performance against the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, and the MSCI World indices, and have outperformed each of them over the past two and a half years. This quarter, we added the LTL Logistics company Old Dominion to the portfolio.

Valuations in U.S. markets are at extremes, raising the risk of low or negative returns over the medium term. The iShares MSCI World ETF offers global developed market exposure but excludes emerging markets, with a net expense ratio of 0.24%. URTH's high P/E ratio and low 1.29% dividend yield signal expensive valuations and limited return potential, especially if growth slows.

As tariff tensions ease and investor sentiment improves, global ETFs like ACWI are poised for a rally.

URTH is overly concentrated in US equities, offering little true international diversification and closely mirroring S&P 500 performance at lower volatility. A simple 70% SPY + 30% cash or risk-free assets portfolio outperforms iShares MSCI World ETF on both returns and drawdown protection. For genuine global diversification, combining SPY with targeted ex-U.S. developed (IEFA) and emerging markets (VWO/IEMG) ETFs is a superior approach.

Global equities hit a record high as AI optimism, easing trade tensions, and solid global data drive ETF momentum worldwide.

IEUR: European Equities Are Going To Be Great Again!

URTH's price is closely tied to GDP projections, EPS estimates, and stock market performance, with a 2025 global GDP growth estimate of 3.3% and U.S. GDP at 2.7%. Trump's tariffs could increase global inflation by 0.5% and reduce global GDP growth by 0.8%, impacting URTH's key sectors: technology, consumer discretionary, and real estate. Despite tariffs, the S&P 500's EPS growth rate could remain positive, potentially benefiting URTH, which holds 75% of U.S. stocks.

iShares MSCI World ETF (URTH) tracks the MSCI World Index, owning about 1,400 developed market equities with a 0.24% expense ratio. URTH benefits from high exposure to U.S. and technology stocks, which have strong competitive advantages and growth potential. Improving global economic outlook and rising PMI indicate better earnings growth for URTH in 2025 and 2026.

The French election: I discuss the investment implications of three possible scenarios: a far-right majority, a far-left majority, and a temporary administrative solution. We received two important data points that could bring us closer to the long-awaited start of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

iShares MSCI World ETF captures a strong mix of U.S. and developed market holdings, but the fund has a relatively high expense ratio. There are multiple reasons to believe that international equities may outperform the U.S. market over the next decade, including current valuations, earnings, and macro-level risk factors. Investors can achieve similar international diversification to URTH with lower fees by combining U.S. total market and developed market funds from Vanguard or Schwab.