ProShares Online Retail ETF

ONLN

Market cap $65.1M

A handful of key economic data points dropped last week, painting a picture of an economy that is successfully downshifting from its recent inflation peaks even as consumers keep their footing.

According to the Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report, consumer spending rose for a fifth straight month in June. Headline sales were up 0.2% as expected, marking a slowdown from May's 1.0% increase.

The LSEG Retail/Restaurant Index reported Q1 2026 earnings growth of 27.2%. Retail earnings in the first quarter of 2026 received a significant boost from a historic tax refund season, reinforcing consumer spending at a time when the labor market remained resilient. Q2 2026 earnings are currently expected to mark the weakest growth rate of the year, with consensus forecasts calling for a gradual improvement during the second half of the year.

We review the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision under its new leadership and look at the surprising strength of the American consumer. We also dive into a historic surge in investor leverage and the geopolitical headlines that ultimately steered major stock indices through a volatile trading week.

According to the Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report, consumer spending climbed for the fourth straight month in May. Headline sales rose 0.9%, almost double the projected 0.5% growth and marking an acceleration from April's 0.4% rise.

The consumer is still spending, but with a higher level of caution. Inflation remains a persistent pressure point, particularly for lower- and middle-income households.

American consumers are rerouting their spending rather than pulling back. With University of Michigan sentiment at 48.2, the savings rate down to 3.6% from 5.1% in early 2025, and energy prices up 14.4% year-over-year, households are making rational adjustments: buying private label at Costco, hunting TJX racks for branded apparel, fixing the old Hyundai instead of financing a new one, and listing the kids' outgrown clothes on eBay.

The most revealing number in the latest spate of retail data may not be how much consumers in the United States spent. It may be that 16.9% of all retail sales now happen online.

The U.S. economic landscape in April was defined by a significant rebound in inflation across both consumer and wholesale sectors, complicating the path for future monetary policy. While retail sales figures indicated continued consumer activity, the data suggests much of this growth was driven by rising fuel prices rather than increased volume.

For an inflation-adjusted perspective on retail sales, take a look at our Real Retail Sales commentary. Here is the introduction from today's report: Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Advance estimates of U.S.