PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon US Treasury Index Exchange-Traded Fund

ZROZ

Market cap $1.76B

Long-term U.S. treasuries were pushed lower Tuesday as the ouster of Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook by President Donald Trump fueled uncertainty regarding the independence of the central bank and monetary policy direction.

Bond supply is surging and will likely rise further in a recession, increasing market pressure. On our last coverage, we suggested that locking in 30-year rates near 4.2% seems risky given the supply outlook. But how do we feel about 5.05%?

Tariffs have caused havoc on the market, with double-digit equity drawdowns and sky-high volatility. Lots of investments are tailor-made for these conditions, experiencing either negligible losses, or seeing significant gains, during recessions. There are ETFs tracking these investments. A look into six such ETFs follows.

The PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded Fund ETF provides an active play on long-term yields while delivering income through sales on imputed returns. We see additional flattening of long-term bond yields being en route, possibly accommodated by a more docile term premium. Key economic indicators suggest the U.S. economy is intact. However, investors could price lower growth expectations, leading to price support for ZROZ via lower long-term yields.

The 10-year yields drop to the lowest level since December, driving Treasury ETFs higher.

Despite recent challenges, I maintain a "Buy" rating on PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index ETF for its long-term potential. Although the ZROZ ETF has underperformed recently I believe it offers a significant margin of safety and attractive yield. Risk-averse investors may wait for more economic and geopolitical clarity, but long-duration bonds remain an appealing trade for 2025 and beyond.

ZROZ is a fixed-income ETF with a 27-year duration, highly sensitive to 30-year U.S. Treasury rate movements. Long rates are at the top of their historic range, expected to be range-bound between 4% and 5%. A 100 bps contraction in long rates could yield a 27% gain for ZROZ, making it an attractive buy.

The 'Undercovered' Dozen series highlights lesser-covered ETFs, offering insights from various authors on potential investment opportunities and market trends. Global X Uranium ETF is seen as well-placed for a uranium bull market, driven by increasing demand for nuclear energy from major tech companies. iShares MSCI India ETF offers exposure to India's fast-growing economy, presenting perhaps a strong investment opportunity despite recent pullbacks due to shifts towards the Chinese market.

Despite recent volatility, I maintain a "Buy" rating on the ZROZ ETF as a recession hedge, given the uncertain economic outlook. Higher implied premiums may lead to worse performance of long-term US treasuries in a soft landing scenario. Potential downward revisions in non-farm payrolls data suggest long-term US Treasuries may see a sharp rally in early 2025.

The PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index ETF tracks long-dated US government STRIPS, giving it increased interest rate sensitivity. The current 4.5% yield on long-dated US treasuries is well above the Fed's neutral rate and should deliver higher returns relative to the short end of the curve. A 4.5% nominal annual return for 25-30 years will likely lag behind riskier alternatives such as equities or real estate.