Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund

XLRE

Market cap $7.81B

After a strong August, REITs faded slightly in September (-0.73%), pulling the REIT sector's year-to-date average total return down to (-1.74%). Mid-cap REITs (-0.92%) averaged the lowest total return in September. Large caps (-0.29%), micro caps (-0.79%), and small caps (-0.83%) averaged modestly smaller declines. Only 37.4% of REIT securities had a positive total return in September.

Essential Properties Realty Trust and NNN REIT present attractive long-term buying opportunities due to strong fundamentals and resilient income profiles. EPRT boasts high occupancy (99.6%), low leverage, and a 4% yield, with double-digit upside potential if it returns to historical multiples by 2027. NNN offers a 36-year dividend growth streak, a 5%+ yield, and solid liquidity, despite recent occupancy dips and tenant headwinds.

Public REITs remain a compelling portfolio diversifier, offering inflation protection, steady dividends, and downside risk mitigation amid a crowded investment landscape. REITs are currently undervalued, with double-digit total returns possible, supported by a 4% dividend yield and 4-6% annual growth. Despite recent outflows and competition from alternatives, a 10-20% allocation to real estate - mixing public and private - is still recommended for balanced portfolios.

The last interest rate cut was in December 2024. Nine months later, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided it was again time to lower the Fed's benchmark federal funds rate -- this time by a quarter of a point down to a range of 4% to 4.25%.

Fed's strong signal of imminent rate cuts is reigniting enthusiasm for commercial real estate, driving REITs and XLRE higher. XLRE stands out for its focus on high-quality, large-cap REITs and real estate firms, offering diversification and a 3.3% yield. The fund has outperformed peers by avoiding riskier mortgage REITs and emphasizing balance sheet strength and industry leadership.

U.S. equity markets notched another series of record highs this week, surging into the weekend after surprisingly dovish commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Powell, who hinted at imminent rate cuts. Powell used his final Jackson Hole speech as Fed Chair to deliver a clear policy pivot, an unexpected reversal after months of insistence that tariff-related inflation warranted a hawkish framework. Markets were equally relieved by the policy-focused nature of Powell's speech amid speculation that the address may be used instead as a potential defiant sermon on central bank independence.

After a strong June (+2.56%), the REIT sector recovery stalled in July (-1.17%) as REITs fell to a -6.42% year-to-date return. Micro cap REITs (-0.20%) outperformed in July while mid caps (-1.18%), small caps (-1.33%) and large caps (-1.55%) averaged slightly deeper negative returns. 60.65% of REIT securities had a negative total return in July.

The BDC sector faces mounting risks from a weakening economy, high consumer debt, and the potential for further dividend cuts as interest rates decline. Recent dividend cuts by several BDCs highlight the sector's vulnerability, despite some names maintaining resilience and attractive valuations. Spillover income offers only limited protection; tight dividend coverage and rising non-accruals signal caution for income-focused investors.

A surprising solid REIT earnings season wrapped up this week. Of the 100 equity REITs that provide full-year FFO guidance, 62% raised their outlook - above the historical 55% average. Disinflation was a surprisingly common thread across second-quarter results, with the majority of the upside revisions being driven by improved expense expectations - the highest quantity of expense reductions ever. Healthcare REITs were notable upside standouts as senior housing fundamentals remained stellar, while skilled nursing REITs received some good news on the policy front via healthy CMS Medicare rate increases.

U.S. equity markets fell sharply this week, while benchmark interest rates retreated to three-month lows, after revised employment data showed that job growth was far weaker than initially reported. The BLS payrolls report showed softer-than-expected hiring in July and the steepest two-month downward revisions to jobs growth since 2020, raising concern that the Fed may be "behind the curve." The downward revisions came days after Fed Chair Powell used it as the primary evidence for "solid" labor markets, which justified the FOMC's decision to keep rates in "restrictive" territory.