Virtus Real Asset Income ETF

VRAI

Market cap $18.2M

Surging oil prices and hotter inflation reports reignited rate-hike concerns, sending Treasury yields to one-year highs as the Iran conflict remained stalemated despite the highly anticipated Trump-Xi summit.

U.S. equity markets advanced for a fifth straight week - their longest winning streak since 2024 - as strong earnings, resilient data, and hopes for lasting Iran peace fueled optimism. Investors looked through another oil-price surge and inflationary pressure, focusing instead on corporate resilience and economic strength despite a complex macro backdrop shaped by geopolitical and policy uncertainty. The Fed held rates steady in an unusually fractured 8-4 vote, while Powell's plan to remain on the Board broke precedent and raised politically charged succession questions.

After 1,078 trading days, U.S. REITs (FTSE NAREIT All Equity Total Return Index) reached new all-time highs on Friday, April 17. Commercial real estate (CRE) has already undergone a significant valuation reset, while many other public and private markets have yet to experience a comparable repricing. Signals from the U.S. listed REIT market indicate that real estate is transitioning from recovery to expansion, as valuations move above prior cycle highs.

U.S. equity markets notched another series of record highs this week, surging into the weekend after surprisingly dovish commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Powell, who hinted at imminent rate cuts. Powell used his final Jackson Hole speech as Fed Chair to deliver a clear policy pivot, an unexpected reversal after months of insistence that tariff-related inflation warranted a hawkish framework. Markets were equally relieved by the policy-focused nature of Powell's speech amid speculation that the address may be used instead as a potential defiant sermon on central bank independence.

A surprising solid REIT earnings season wrapped up this week. Of the 100 equity REITs that provide full-year FFO guidance, 62% raised their outlook - above the historical 55% average. Disinflation was a surprisingly common thread across second-quarter results, with the majority of the upside revisions being driven by improved expense expectations - the highest quantity of expense reductions ever. Healthcare REITs were notable upside standouts as senior housing fundamentals remained stellar, while skilled nursing REITs received some good news on the policy front via healthy CMS Medicare rate increases.

U.S. equity markets fell sharply this week, while benchmark interest rates retreated to three-month lows, after revised employment data showed that job growth was far weaker than initially reported. The BLS payrolls report showed softer-than-expected hiring in July and the steepest two-month downward revisions to jobs growth since 2020, raising concern that the Fed may be "behind the curve." The downward revisions came days after Fed Chair Powell used it as the primary evidence for "solid" labor markets, which justified the FOMC's decision to keep rates in "restrictive" territory.

Return to office mandates are providing a boost to REITs. Some deal activity has also been a tailwind. Tariffs and slowing residential rent growth remain headwinds.

US equity markets declined for the fourth week in the past five after a frenetic slate of geopolitical headlines and economic data indicated a sluggish start to 2025 for global growth. The Atlanta Fed's updated growth forecast indicated a -1.5% contraction in first-quarter GDP, while PCE data showed the first monthly decline in personal spending in nearly two years. Buoyed by the interest rate retreat, real estate equities were also a notable source of strength this week as REIT earnings season wrapped up with a surprisingly solid slate of results.

Rate cuts have finally arrived, but why hasn't it benefitted REITs? What's needed to lift the REITs market. Why REITs are still struggling.

U.S. equity and bond markets staged a late-week rebound, erasing early-week declines prompted by disappointing Eurozone inflation data, after the crucial PCE inflation gauge posted its smallest increase of 2024. Posting a second week of modest declines following four-straight weekly gains, the S&P 500 finished lower by 0.4% on the week, but still notched its best month since February. Real estate equities also rebounded following steep declines in the prior week as a handful of REITs provided positive business updates ahead of the annual REITweek industry conference.