Virtus Real Asset Income ETF

VRAI

Market cap $18.8M

As REIT earnings season kicks into gear this week, we preview results and major sector trends based on recent operating indicators, company commentary, and real estate market data. REITs enter earnings season with solid momentum, outperforming the market despite elevated Treasury yields and geopolitical volatility, as investors refocus on earnings growth, property fundamentals, dividends, M&A, and capital allocation. Encouraging green shoots have become more plentiful, including resilient hotel demand, robust senior housing growth, improving apartment and industrial fundamentals, and a rebound in retail leasing following a softer Q1.

REITs have refused to break in 2026 despite oil-driven inflation pressure, rising Treasury yields, and a Fed narrative that flipped from multiple rate cuts to potential hikes. The “Rates Up, REITs Down” regime has weakened, with REIT-rate correlations falling sharply as fundamentals, strategy, capital allocation, and valuation catalysts increasingly drive performance. M&A has helped break the rate-driven narrative, validating public-market discounts to NAV and proving that REITs can unlock value through consolidation, privatizations, and strategic alternatives.

Surging oil prices and hotter inflation reports reignited rate-hike concerns, sending Treasury yields to one-year highs as the Iran conflict remained stalemated despite the highly anticipated Trump-Xi summit.

U.S. equity markets advanced for a fifth straight week - their longest winning streak since 2024 - as strong earnings, resilient data, and hopes for lasting Iran peace fueled optimism. Investors looked through another oil-price surge and inflationary pressure, focusing instead on corporate resilience and economic strength despite a complex macro backdrop shaped by geopolitical and policy uncertainty. The Fed held rates steady in an unusually fractured 8-4 vote, while Powell's plan to remain on the Board broke precedent and raised politically charged succession questions.

After 1,078 trading days, U.S. REITs (FTSE NAREIT All Equity Total Return Index) reached new all-time highs on Friday, April 17. Commercial real estate (CRE) has already undergone a significant valuation reset, while many other public and private markets have yet to experience a comparable repricing. Signals from the U.S. listed REIT market indicate that real estate is transitioning from recovery to expansion, as valuations move above prior cycle highs.

U.S. equity markets notched another series of record highs this week, surging into the weekend after surprisingly dovish commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Powell, who hinted at imminent rate cuts. Powell used his final Jackson Hole speech as Fed Chair to deliver a clear policy pivot, an unexpected reversal after months of insistence that tariff-related inflation warranted a hawkish framework. Markets were equally relieved by the policy-focused nature of Powell's speech amid speculation that the address may be used instead as a potential defiant sermon on central bank independence.

A surprising solid REIT earnings season wrapped up this week. Of the 100 equity REITs that provide full-year FFO guidance, 62% raised their outlook - above the historical 55% average. Disinflation was a surprisingly common thread across second-quarter results, with the majority of the upside revisions being driven by improved expense expectations - the highest quantity of expense reductions ever. Healthcare REITs were notable upside standouts as senior housing fundamentals remained stellar, while skilled nursing REITs received some good news on the policy front via healthy CMS Medicare rate increases.

U.S. equity markets fell sharply this week, while benchmark interest rates retreated to three-month lows, after revised employment data showed that job growth was far weaker than initially reported. The BLS payrolls report showed softer-than-expected hiring in July and the steepest two-month downward revisions to jobs growth since 2020, raising concern that the Fed may be "behind the curve." The downward revisions came days after Fed Chair Powell used it as the primary evidence for "solid" labor markets, which justified the FOMC's decision to keep rates in "restrictive" territory.

Return to office mandates are providing a boost to REITs. Some deal activity has also been a tailwind. Tariffs and slowing residential rent growth remain headwinds.

US equity markets declined for the fourth week in the past five after a frenetic slate of geopolitical headlines and economic data indicated a sluggish start to 2025 for global growth. The Atlanta Fed's updated growth forecast indicated a -1.5% contraction in first-quarter GDP, while PCE data showed the first monthly decline in personal spending in nearly two years. Buoyed by the interest rate retreat, real estate equities were also a notable source of strength this week as REIT earnings season wrapped up with a surprisingly solid slate of results.