Global X MSCI Vietnam ETF

VNAM

Market cap $22.7M

Last week FTSE made its annual review of country classification within its global equity indices (see the announcement here). One of the most interesting changes was Vietnam's upgrade from frontier to emerging market.

Vietnam's footwear exports to the United States plunged 27% in September to $611 million, marking the steepest decline among all sectors following the implementation of tariffs by the U.S. government, according to customs data released Monday.

Steven Quattry, Morgan Stanley Investment Management says a number of emerging markets are undergoing structural reforms, hence attracting foreign capital.

The S&P 500 (SPY) rallied 5.7% this week but remains down 5.4% since the close on "Liberation Day" on 4/2. The average country ETF is down 4% since 4/2, so SPY has underperformed that since Trump's Rose Garden announcement. Asian countries like Vietnam (VNAM) and Thailand (THD) had some of the harshest reciprocal tariffs announced on Liberation Day, and since the pause, these two have bounced back 16.7% and 14.1%.

Since President Trump's second term began with the Inauguration on January 20th, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is down 16.5% compared to a 6.2% drop for the all world ex US ETF (CWI). It's early, but the rest of the world is solidly beating US markets so far under Trump 2.0. The average country ETF is down exactly 10% in the two and a half trading days since Trump's "Liberation Day," and the only two down less than 5% are India (INDA) and Turkey (TUR).

US equities have outperformed the rest of the world for a long time now. While the US is up 58% on a total return basis during the current bull market, the rest of the world is up 13.5 percentage points less at +44.5%. Looking at the international dividend ETF over a longer time frame, over the last five years, it's up 20.6% in price and more than double that on a total return basis.

While the China macro story of ongoing transition is a headwind to the rest of Asia, there is more to the region's economic health than this.

The total nominal GDP of the ten ASEAN nations measured in US dollar terms amounted to USD 3.6 trillion in 2022, more than doubling compared with total GDP of USD 1.6 trillion in 2009. Singapore's GDP growth rate improved to a pace of 2.8% y/y in the fourth quarter of 2023 according to the advance estimate of GDP from the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI).

For the first half of 2024, market analysts foresee India, Japan, and Vietnam as the most favorable markets in the Asia-Pacific region, as quoted on CNBC.

With moderating inflation levels in most Asian countries and great growth potential in the medium to long term, investing in Emerging Asian countries can prove beneficial.