Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF

VGLT

Market cap $10.2B

The yield on the 10-year note ended October 10, 2025 at 4.05%. Meanwhile the 2-year note ended at 3.53% and the 30-year note ended at 4.63%.

The yield on the 10-year note ended October 3, 2025 at 4.13%. Meanwhile the 2-year note ended at 3.58% and the 30-year note ended at 4.71%.

Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. This analysis focuses on the P/E10 ratio, a key indicator of market valuation, and its correlation with inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield.

This article looks at the 10-year Treasury yield's historical trends since 1962, exploring its relationship with key economic indicators like the Fed Funds Rate (FFR), inflation, and the S&P 500. The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.

The yield on the 10-year note ended September 26, 2025 at 4.20%. Meanwhile the 2-year note ended at 3.63% and the 30-year note ended at 4.77%.

The yield on the 10-year note ended September 19, 2025 at 4.14%. Meanwhile the 2-year note ended at 3.57% and the 30-year note ended at 4.75%.

The Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF offers low-cost exposure to long-term US Treasuries, with a 4.31% yield and high-interest rate sensitivity. With an expected Fed rate cut in September 2025, rotating into intermediate-to-long-term Treasuries like VGLT could optimize fixed income exposure. Recent economic data, including rising unemployment and persistent inflation, supports the case for longer-dated bonds despite ongoing uncertainties.

The yield on the 10-year note ended September 12, 2025 at 4.06%. Meanwhile the 2-year note ended at 3.56% and the 30-year note ended at 4.68%.

The yield on the 10-year note ended September 5, 2025 at 4.10%, its lowest level since the beginning of April. Meanwhile the 2-year note ended at 3.51%, its lowest level since September 2024.

Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. This analysis focuses on the P/E10 ratio, a key indicator of market valuation, and its correlation with inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield.