Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF

VGIT

Market cap $33.1B

In a rate-hiking environment the last few years, short-term bonds have been the default exposure option. But as the bond market expects more rate cuts to come after September's drop of 25 basis points, investors may want to consider intermediate bonds as a way to maximize income.

The yield on the 10-year note ended October 10, 2025 at 4.05%. Meanwhile the 2-year note ended at 3.53% and the 30-year note ended at 4.63%.

The yield on the 10-year note ended October 3, 2025 at 4.13%. Meanwhile the 2-year note ended at 3.58% and the 30-year note ended at 4.71%.

Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. This analysis focuses on the P/E10 ratio, a key indicator of market valuation, and its correlation with inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield.

This article looks at the 10-year Treasury yield's historical trends since 1962, exploring its relationship with key economic indicators like the Fed Funds Rate (FFR), inflation, and the S&P 500. The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.

The yield on the 10-year note ended September 26, 2025 at 4.20%. Meanwhile the 2-year note ended at 3.63% and the 30-year note ended at 4.77%.

The yield on the 10-year note ended September 19, 2025 at 4.14%. Meanwhile the 2-year note ended at 3.57% and the 30-year note ended at 4.75%.

The yield on the 10-year note ended September 12, 2025 at 4.06%. Meanwhile the 2-year note ended at 3.56% and the 30-year note ended at 4.68%.

The yield on the 10-year note ended September 5, 2025 at 4.10%, its lowest level since the beginning of April. Meanwhile the 2-year note ended at 3.51%, its lowest level since September 2024.

Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. This analysis focuses on the P/E10 ratio, a key indicator of market valuation, and its correlation with inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield.