United States Oil Fund

USO

Market cap $1.26B

OPEC+ has a history of raising oil output to cushion disruptions but analysts said the group currently has little spare capacity to add to supply.

Potential oil market disruptions caused by the Middle East crisis appear to have prompted the OPEC+ crude producers' group to announce an output hike at its scheduled meeting on Sunday.

Crude-oil markets won't officially open for a few more hours, but traders are already using prediction markets like Kalshi to take bets on where prices will settle on Monday.

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively come to a stop as shipping companies take precautionary measures, analysts said. About a third of the world's seaborne oil exports passed through the Strait in 2025.

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped off amid warnings from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. What happens next could have major implications for the global economy.

Escalating U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran and threats of retaliation signal heightened geopolitical risk, with oil markets primed for volatility and potential price spikes. Polymarket odds show a 93% chance WTI crude rises Monday, with a 77% probability oil exceeds $80/barrel by March-end, reflecting sharply increased risk premium.

Markets were expected to react to the outbreak of conflict in Iran this weekend.

Bloomberg Intelligence's Mike McGlone explains what the US and Israeli strikes on Iran mean for oil and commodities prices. He speaks on "Bloomberg This Weekend.

Oil futures will begin trading later on Sunday. Saudi Aramco shares were climbing as trading resumed in Saudi Arabia, possibly hinting that crude is headed for a surge.

Escalating US–Iran tensions are likely to push oil prices higher, lift inflation expectations, and drive investors toward gold while increasing downside risks for equities.