ProShares Ultra Real Estate

URE

Market cap $60.3M

For nearly five decades, US REITs have delivered stronger returns than broad US stocks in the 12 months following Federal Reserve easing cycles. Rate cuts may increase the attractiveness of REIT dividends, potentially making them a compelling option for investors seeking yield potential and portfolio diversification. Data centers, telecom infrastructure, and health care REITs have historically benefited the most from lower rates due to long-duration leases and capital-intensive models.

A surprising solid REIT earnings season wrapped up this week. Of the 100 equity REITs that provide full-year FFO guidance, 62% raised their outlook - above the historical 55% average. Disinflation was a surprisingly common thread across second-quarter results, with the majority of the upside revisions being driven by improved expense expectations - the highest quantity of expense reductions ever. Healthcare REITs were notable upside standouts as senior housing fundamentals remained stellar, while skilled nursing REITs received some good news on the policy front via healthy CMS Medicare rate increases.

Return to office mandates are providing a boost to REITs. Some deal activity has also been a tailwind. Tariffs and slowing residential rent growth remain headwinds.

Most US REITs make nearly 90% of their revenue domestically, compared to 72% for typical U.S. stocks. Healthcare, residential, and needs-based retail are less affected by trade disruptions, while office, lodging, and timber are more vulnerable. They're trading at a -2.79x earnings multiple discount to US stocks - one of the widest gaps in decades.

This post takes a closer look at the underlying mechanics that allow Realty Income and other high-quality REITs to grow their distributions over decades without compromising sustainability. While Realty Income's dividend shows the familiar stair-step pattern of monthly increases over time, what's most important is that this growth appears supported by a steadily rising AFFO base. One of the most reliable indicators of a REIT's health is its occupancy rate. This metric tells you what percentage of a REIT's total properties are currently leased and producing rental income.

US equity markets erased their post-Liberation Day sell-off this week - notching their best winning streak in two decades - as investors parsed surprisingly solid corporate earnings and employment data. A critical slate of employment data this week showed that job growth remained relatively strong in April, despite the extreme market volatility and plunge in consumer and business sentiment. The PCE Index - the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation - cooled to the lowest-level in almost five years, swinging the market narrative from "stagflation" and back towards "soft landing."

A notable defensive rotation is underway this year, benefitting REIT stocks. The recipe that makes REITs a compelling investment today already contains two important ingredients – cheap valuations and positive fundamentals. With a macro backdrop starting to wobble, it's important to realize the steady, durable earnings that REITs offer.

Public REITs have benefited from a great rotation within equity markets since the end of June, with U.S. REITs returning 13.2% vs. S&P 500 3.7%. Clear evidence of a growth slowdown and moderating inflation has increased the market's conviction Fed rate cuts are imminent. REITs in sectors such as senior housing, single-family rental, cold warehouse storage, and wireless towers are a compelling opportunity with visible, defensive cash flows that offer attractive growth under a variety of economic outcomes.

Investors could make a short-term bullish play on the rate-sensitive sectors as these spaces are likely to see huge gains in the wake of rate cuts.

Over 200 U.S. REITs and homebuilders have reported second-quarter earnings results over the past six weeks, providing critical information on the state of the commercial and residential real estate industry. In this report, we highlight some quick incremental positives and negatives we've observed across each of the major property sectors. Next week, we'll publish our detailed "Winners & Losers" Report. Of the 96 equity REITs that provide full-year FFO guidance, 57 (59%) raised their outlook, while 13 (14%) lowered - well above the historical second-quarter average "raise rate" of 40-45%.