Ternium

TX

Market cap $7.12B

Ternium remains an excellent BUY despite recent US steel import tariffs, thanks to its strong industry position and limited US exposure. TX's 2Q 2025 results demonstrate resilience and clarify its operating environment compared to previous periods, supporting the updated investment thesis. Valuation using multiple metrics shows significant upside potential for TX, even when factoring in discounts for emerging market risks and tariffs.

Ternium's stock has outperformed the S&P 500 recently, yet still trades at historically low valuation multiples, supporting my continued buy recommendation. Despite a challenging steel market, Ternium demonstrated operational efficiency, strong cash flow, and record CapEx, reinforcing its long-term growth and modernization strategy. The company maintains financial strength, a high dividend yield over 8%, and a conservative balance sheet, making it attractive for value-focused investors.

Ternium S.A. (NYSE:TX ) Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call July 30, 2025 8:30 AM ET Company Participants Maximo Vedoya - Chief Executive Officer Pablo Daniel Brizzio - Chief Financial Officer Sebastián Martí - Investor Relations Director Conference Call Participants Caio Greiner - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division Carlos De Alba - Morgan Stanley, Research Division Rafael Barcellos - Banco Bradesco BBI S.A.

LUXEMBOURG, LU / ACCESS Newswire / July 29, 2025 / Ternium S.A. (NYSE:TX) today announced its results for the second quarter and first half ended June 30, 2025.

Ternium thrives as a regional steel spread player, balancing iron ore costs against HRC prices and exposure to nearshoring and potential market protection in Mexico and Brazil. The stock's valuation reflects expectations for margin normalization; upside exists if steel spreads recover, but downside risk remains if spreads stay compressed. Key risks include exposure to open markets vulnerable to Chinese dumping, legal liabilities in Brazil, and currently negative free cash flow yield due to cyclical headwinds.

Key Points in This Article: Dividend growth investing provides a reliable, inflation-resistant income stream for retirement by leveraging consistent dividend increases and compounding for long-term wealth.

LUXEMBOURG, LU / ACCESS Newswire / July 2, 2025 / Ternium S.A. (NYSE:TX) today announced the release of its Sustainability Report 2024, outlining the company's performance, strategy, governance and risk management across key sustainability areas, such as climate change, environmental and human resources management, and relationship with the community and the value chain.

Ternium's integrated business model leverages low-cost raw materials, flexible production methods, and proximity to high-growth Latin American. They are positioned to benefit from nearshoring trends and import substitution, especially as Mexico imports nearly half its steel and USMCA incentives drive demand. TX stands out for disciplined capital deployment into ESG-aligned projects, investing ahead of peers in efficient, cleaner steelmaking capacity for future growth.

Fully integrated model: Ternium controls the entire steel production chain, ensuring cost efficiency, quality, and innovation while preparing for a cleaner, more sustainable industrial future. Undervalued by the market: The Company trades at deep discounts—P/E FWD of 4.56x and EV/EBITDA of 4.12x—despite solid fundamentals, strong cash flow, and nearly 10% dividend yield. Strategic positioning: With operations across key regional markets and investments in high-tech facilities, TX is well-placed to benefit from nearshoring and green steel demand.

We initiate coverage on Ternium S.A. with a Strong Buy, given the market's overly bearish view on Latin American steel cyclicality and asset ramp-up. Our US$45/sh price target is based on a forward EV/Sales multiple of 0.45x on our below consensus 2026E revenues forecasts and implies 68% upside. We forecast Ternium trough revenues of US$16.2bn in 2025E, 4% below consensus, with a subdued recovery to US$17.1bn in 2026E.