Simplify Short Term Treasury Futures Strategy ETF

TUA

Market cap $638M

TUA offers duration exposure in the T-bond market. The ETF has done well this year, as markets still price in more rate cuts in the next couple of years. The Fed may not meet the current market outlook on rate cuts if inflation or economic weakness don't materialize.

The Simplify Short Term Treasury Futures Strategy ETF offers a levered bet on 2-year treasury futures. Weaker economic growth, driven by Trump's policies, has led to lower short-term yields, as investors anticipate dovish Fed policies. Should the economy fall into recession, I expect the Fed to cut interest rates aggressively, which should boost the value of TUA. TUA is a positive-carry hedge against the economy.

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Simplify announced today that it expects to deliver capital gains distributions across six Simplify ETFs.

The Simplify Short-Term Treasury Futures Strategy ETF offers a levered bet on 2-year treasury futures. Market expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts have shifted to a more hawkish stance due to stalled inflation improvements and a stronger-than-expected economy. Despite potential inflationary fiscal policies from President Trump, the Fed is unlikely to raise rates, aligning with political pressures and historical precedents.

On Tuesday, Simplify Asset Management unveiled the next addition to its bond ETF library: the Simplify National Muni Bond ETF (NMB).  Primarily, NMB seeks to provide income for its investors, and has a net expense ratio of 0.52%.

The Federal Reserve left rates on hold at the July 31st meeting, and they have now been on hold for over a year. TUA ETF has about 5 times exposure to the 2-year U.S. Treasury Note, giving it a duration of about 8 to 9 years. The 2-year part of the yield curve will benefit the most when the Fed starts to ease monetary policy, and TUA is a good option to express this idea.

The Simplify Short-Term Treasury Futures Strategy ETF is a levered bet on lower short-term interest rates. In recent weeks, investor sentiment has once again swung in the direction of imminent rate cuts, boosting TUA's valuation. However, I believe the Fed may be more patient than pundits, as they may not want to repeat last year's mistake of loosening monetary policy prematurely.

The Simplify Short-Term Treasury Futures Strategy ETF is a levered bet on lower short-term interest rates. The TUA ETF may face headwinds as the American economy appears stronger than expected, potentially delaying or reducing interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Since 2-year yields are closely tied to the Fed's monetary policies, if the Fed cuts less than 3 times, then 2-year yields may rise, pressuring the TUA ETF.

The TUA ETF is a leveraged bet on declining short-term interest rates. Expectations for the first rate cut have been pushed back, resulting in an increase in 2-year yields and losses for the TUA ETF. Despite the recent losses, investors should not bail on the TUA ETF as current 2-year yields now are consistent with the Fed's projections.

I covered TUA last April and a reader has asked for an update since interest rates are expected to decrease in 2024. TUA invests in short-term treasury futures. It aims for similar risk to medium-term treasuries, but with higher yields and returns. Although the fund has failed to live up to its potential in the past, the future looks rosier.