Tootsie Roll Industries

TR

Market cap $3.17B

The National Retail Federation estimates Halloween spending will increase by 13% year-over-year (YOY) to more than $13 billion this year, with customers adding costumes, decorations, candy, and more to their carts in anticipation. Investors might see this as an opportunity to focus on some retailers specializing in holiday goods, all of whom could get a boost thanks to the much-needed influx of customer dollars.

The Dividend Kings list now includes 56 stocks, but only a select few offer fair value and strong yields relative to share price. Five top-yielding Dividend Kings—UVV, CDUAF, NWN, UBSI, and KVUE—currently meet my ideal of annual dividends exceeding share price. Analyst targets suggest these top-yield Kings could deliver net gains of 16% to 75% by September 2026, with lower volatility than the market.

Tootsie Roll boasts a 59-year dividend growth streak, excellent safety metrics, and a nearly 4% yield when including stock dividends. Revenue and earnings have rebounded post-pandemic, but growth is expected to be low single digits due to economic headwinds and input cost inflation. The company has no long-term debt, strong free cash flow, and significant insider ownership, supporting long-term stability and dividend safety.

Tootsie Roll Posts 12% Profit Gain in Q2

Most Dividend Kings are currently overpriced, but six offer fair value where annual dividends from $1,000 invested exceed their share price. Three top-yield Dividend Kings—Altria, Northwest Natural, and Canadian Utilities—meet the ideal 'dogcatcher' standard for fair pricing and dividend safety. Analyst projections suggest select Dividend Kings could deliver up to 58% total returns by June 2026, with lower volatility than the market overall.

Despite commodity cost pressures and competition, Tootsie Roll's niche brand loyalty and sustainable payouts position it as a defensive dividend growth stock.

Tootsie Roll Industries has seen mixed financial performance, with revenue dropping but margins improving due to cost-cutting and higher pricing. Despite cheaper valuations, Tootsie Roll remains relatively pricey compared to peers, justifying a 'hold' rating. The company's net cash position and book value per share have grown, providing liquidity to weather current challenges.

Tootsie Roll is undervalued with a current P/E ratio of 22.2X, significantly below its historical averages, and a fair value estimate of $40.80. The company has iconic brands, a solid balance sheet with no long-term debt, and performs well during economic downturns. Tootsie Roll offers a 1.21% cash dividend yield and a 3% annual stock dividend, making it attractive for income and dividend growth investors.

Tootsie Roll survived the 1987 stock market crash, 1990 Gulf War, 2000 Dotcom Bust, 2007-09 Great Recession, 2020 Pandemic, and aggressive 2022 Fed tightening with minimal impact. The company's low debt profile, high profit margins, steady operations, and defensive trading characteristics make it an attractive option during market downturns. A 10-year low valuation setup is now available, with financial ratios uncommonly trading at par to discount readings vs. S&P 500.

The U.S. has become a nation defined by its taste for all things gourmet, be it high-end coffee or imported olive oil. But what trends will define the future of food?