TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC

TPVG

Market cap $224M

MENLO PARK, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (NYSE: TPVG) (the “Company”), a leading financing provider to venture growth stage companies backed by a select group of venture capital firms in technology and other high growth industries, today announced its Board of Directors has declared a regular quarterly distribution of $0.23 per share for the fourth quarter and a supplemental distribution of $0.02 per share, each of which will be payable on December 30, 2025 to s.

Here at Zacks, our focus is on the proven Zacks Rank system, which emphasizes earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find great stocks. Nevertheless, we are always paying attention to the latest value, growth, and momentum trends to underscore strong picks.

Blackstone Secured Lending and Morgan Stanley Direct Lending are high-quality BDCs facing potential dividend cuts due to falling coverage ratios. BXSL's fundamentals remain strong, but tight dividend coverage, high floating-rate exposure, and significant upcoming debt maturities raise concerns about a near-term cut. MSDL, despite robust liquidity and investment-grade ratings, has seen declining earnings, rising non-performing loans, and high floating-rate exposure, signaling possible dividend reduction.

TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC trades at a deep discount to NAV, reflecting internal portfolio weaknesses rather than a compelling buying opportunity. TPVG's earnings and NAV growth remain stagnant, with elevated non-accruals and rising PIK income signaling ongoing portfolio stress despite a high 15.8% dividend yield. While the current dividend appears sustainable with 122% coverage, further interest rate cuts could pressure net investment income and future distributions.

BDCs have already experienced a notable correction. The sector median P/NAV metric indicates ~12% discount to NAV. Many players are priced even below that.

AI disruption is happening faster than most expect, with trillions in CapEx reshaping industries and creating huge risks for income investors. BDCs thrive on high yields, but their heavy software exposure now faces AI-driven disruption that could upend portfolios and cash flows. I'm staying cautious, focusing on proven BDCs with strong diversification and lower disruption risk to balance income with resilience.

14 BDCs have base dividend coverage levels between 100% and 105%. 16 BDCs have them already below 100%. Given the unfavorable future earnings outlook, a system-wide BDC dividend cutting process is very likely to start quite soon.

The Dividend Power strategy highlights 35 high-yield stocks, with 12 'safer' picks offering free cash flow yields above dividend yields and fair valuations. Top five 'safer' Dividend Power stocks for September are Carlyle Secured Lending (CGBD), Stellus Capital (SCM), Blue Owl Capital (OBDC), SLR Investment (SLRC), and Seven Hills Realty (SEVN). Analyst projections suggest the top ten Dividend Power stocks could deliver average net gains of 43.3% by September 2026, though risk and volatility vary.

BDCs have two issues: 1) almost no margin of safety for dividend coverage, and 2) depressed earnings outlook. For many players it is just a matter of several quarters before they become forced to cut dividends. Yet, there are many arguments, which negate such a view. Unfortunately, many of them ar myths.

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