Texas Pacific Land

TPL

Market cap $28.3B

Texas Pacific (TPL) was a big mover last session on higher-than-average trading volume. The latest trend in earnings estimate revisions might help the stock continue moving higher in the near term.

Texas Pacific Land Corporation is undergoing a strategic transformation, pivoting to AI data centers and desalination alongside its core royalty business. TPL's partnership with Bolt Data & Energy positions its land for large-scale, energy-independent AI compute campuses, leveraging unique land, energy, and water assets. Despite high valuation metrics (P/E 54.23, EV/EBITDA 39.55), I upgrade TPL to Buy, citing strong cash generation and secular AI/data center tailwinds.

DALLAS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--TPL Announces the Passing of Murray Stahl.

Texas Pacific Land may have gotten ahead of itself with a massive February rally. The energy royalty company has since given back a chunk of those gains.

Q1 2026 was an exceptional quarter for energy stocks thanks to war in the Middle East, but Q2 2026 is not guaranteed to step in its footsteps. Energy prices can go higher and push the sector higher, but they do not have to if the U.S. can neutralize Iran's ability to project force. While energy stocks are benefiting from the fighting in the short term, it may actually come back to hurt them in the long run.

I am shifting capital allocation toward scarcity-driven assets like energy, metals, infrastructure, and defense, as the abundance trade in software faces structural disruption from AI. My TOLL framework prioritizes companies with hard assets, durable competitive moats, and long-duration cash flows that are less vulnerable to AI-driven commoditization. Key investment themes include nuclear utilities (VST, CEG), copper producers (FCX), gold/silver streamers (FNV, WPM), grid/infrastructure suppliers (ETN, FIX), and defense/aerospace leaders (RTX, TDG).

Energy remains my top sector for long-term alpha, driven by prudent capital allocation, dwindling reserves, and underestimated demand growth. Despite recent outperformance, I am not chasing momentum; I plan to buy on weakness when geopolitical risk premiums fade. Large E&P companies are prioritizing free cash flow and reserve protection over production growth, supporting a bullish supply outlook.

Two top S&P 500 stocks lead this weekend's watchlist with five AI stocks near buy points amid a broad market slide.

Value investing is about identifying misalignments between price and medium to long-term fundamentals, not just low multiples. I focus on high-quality, cyclical value stocks like Union Pacific, Old Dominion Freight Line, and Carlisle Companies during downturns. Hidden growth and undervalued quality, as seen in Texas Pacific Land and ONEOK, offer significant upside when the market misjudges resilience or growth.

Fear is dominating global markets right now. With geopolitical tensions intensifying in the Middle East and capital rotating out of equities, the S&P 500 ETF NYSEARCA: SPY is down about 2% year to date (YTD).