iShares MSCI Thailand ETF

THD

Market cap $208M

The iShares MSCI Thailand ETF offers broad exposure to Thai equities, including small-caps, and is not overly exposed to any one sector. THD's largest holding, Delta Electronics (DLEGF), which accounts for 15% of the portfolio, could benefit from the ongoing spurt in AI computing workloads, but its valuations are extremely concerning. Thailand's macroeconomic outlook is weak, with sluggish GDP and consumer spending, while its long-term earnings growth profile is less attractive than other Asian EMs.

THD has underperformed the other Asian ETFs, with limited diversification, due to heavy concentration in a few stocks. The Thai baht's strength provided some backwind for THD, but this may reverse in the near future. Thailand's economy faces headwinds from declining tourism, especially from China, weak private consumption, and negative inflation.

Among APAC equity markets, Australia has a higher beta to oil prices while India, Indonesia and Thailand have lower betas. Domestic political uncertainties have been one main reason for the decoupling trend seen in Indonesia and Thailand.

THD has performed very poorly over the past decade, offering a -7% return with dividends reinvested. The ETF is heavily exposed to slower growing sectors and firms, with just a 1% allocation towards technology. Many of the fund's holdings suffer from risks associated with government or controlling family influence.

The S&P 500 (SPY) rallied 5.7% this week but remains down 5.4% since the close on "Liberation Day" on 4/2. The average country ETF is down 4% since 4/2, so SPY has underperformed that since Trump's Rose Garden announcement. Asian countries like Vietnam (VNAM) and Thailand (THD) had some of the harshest reciprocal tariffs announced on Liberation Day, and since the pause, these two have bounced back 16.7% and 14.1%.

THD: Don't Chase The Thailand Dip

Not much has actually changed for the long-term Thailand investment case. Recent drivers have been short-term oriented and are likely to fizzle out eventually. I won't be chasing the recent Thai rally.

Despite volatility, the S&P 500 emerged stronger in the third quarter, touching a series of new record highs. It was the index's best quarter since Q4 2021.

Novan Amirudin, CIMB's Group CEO, talks about the banking environment across Southeast Asia, and why he's positive about Thailand's position relative to global & developed markets.

Market strengths here… and abroad.