Amplify BlackSwan Growth & Treasure Core ETF

SWAN

Market cap $379M

Though the stock market has generally continued its upward trend so far in 2026, cracks may be appearing. A slowing labor market, the risk of an AI bubble collapse, and a Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) ratio around 40 all suggest that a crash may be looming for a market that is potentially overvalued.

Amplify ETFs today announced that the net asset value (NAV) of the Amplify BlackSwan Growth & Treasury Core ETF (SWAN) was decreased by $1.2713 per share.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is upgraded to Buy due to its extremely attractive 0.5x FY26 revenue multiple, despite ongoing margin pressures. SMCI faces volatile gross margins, intense competition from OEMs and ODMs, and management's inconsistent guidance, leading to market skepticism. Despite projected 65% FY26 revenue growth, SMCI's gross margin-adjusted revenue growth is estimated at only 11%, reflecting industry-wide margin compression.

Nobody can predict when the next major market downturn, or what finance academician Nassim Taleb calls a “black swan event,” will occur. For a portfolio that's ill-equipped to handle the next major market event, it could be its swan song when (not if) that takes place.

Amplify BlackSwan Growth & Treasury Core ETF (SWAN) offers a unique 60/90 leveraged portfolio, flipping traditional 60/40 allocations for risk balancing. SWAN primarily invests in short-to-medium duration US Treasuries and uses S&P 500 call options for equity exposure, capping downside risk. Current market conditions—attractive Treasury yields and elevated S&P 500 valuations—make SWAN appealing for both growth and defensive positioning.

SWAN participates in SPY's upside with LEAP call options while protecting capital from fast market crashes with a buffer of treasuries. The fund has delivered lower returns and similar drawdowns to SPY, but with significantly reduced volatility since inception. While SWAN is effective during sharp market crashes, it offers limited protection in slow downturns.

Legal & General Group PLC (LSE:LGEN) shares fell 1.7% despite the life insurer unveiling a larger than expected £500 million buyback, with analysts pointing out a few niggles in the numbers but its overall "swan-like" performance.  The recent streamlining of the business into three core areas – Institutional Retirement, Asset Management and UK Retail – resulted in non-core sales during the year of its US Protection business for £1.8 billion and Cala Homes for £1.35 billion, which will result in a further share buyback of £1 billion when the former is completed, in addition to the one announced today.

The 2025 trade war is causing significant market volatility, making risk-balanced ETFs like Amplify BlackSwan Growth & Treasury Core ETF appealing. SWAN balances risk by allocating more to US government bonds and using in-the-money options for S&P 500 exposure, capping downside risk. SWAN's bond holdings are conservative, benefiting from economic slowdowns but vulnerable to rising yields and potential positive stock-bond correlations.

The Amplify BlackSwan Growth & Treasury Core ETF aims to hedge against market drops while allowing for potential stock market gains through a 90% Treasuries and 10% S&P 500 LEAP options mix. SWAN's unique allocation leverages the inverse relationship between Treasuries and equities, cushioning losses during downturns and increasing equity exposure as markets rise. Despite a poor performance in 2022 due to an unprecedented bear market in Treasuries, SWAN remains a compelling option for risk-adjusted returns across varying market conditions.

You don't get upset for having homeowner's insurance but your house doesn't burn down. The same principle should apply to investors who insure their stock portfolios against a crash.